Throughout the 2016 offseason, the AFC South was dramatically, and significantly, altered. The volume of change in Indianapolis, though, was nowhere near what it was for the rest of the division. Head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson, both thought to be in hot water at year's end, returned with contract extensions in tow.
For all the change that didn't take place, though, the Colts' fortunes (and perhaps those in the AFC South as well) will be significantly altered by one change that did take place. Quarterback Andrew Luck has returned under center, much to the chagrin of many in the three other AFC South cities. Jacksonville had to hold its breath in London while Luck did everything possible to bring the Colts back in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, Houston fans know all too well what Luck is capable of in 60 minutes of action.
He can singlehandedly lead the Colts to a win, especially due to the fact that his presence brings out the best in star receiver T.Y. Hilton. The Colts are coming, here's how they look.
OFFENSE
2015 Unit Profile
Rush Offense - 89.9 ypg (29th in the NFL)
Pass Offense - 231.5 ypg (22nd)
Total Offense - 321.4 ypg (28th)
Scoring Offense - 20.8 ppg (24th)
2016 Unit Profile
Rush Offense - 90.0 ypg (22nd in the NFL)
Pass Offense - 268.6 ypg (9th)
Total Offense - 358.6 ypg (14th)
Scoring Offense - 27.4 ppg (7th)
Here's what the Colts offense looked like the last time the Texans faced them in week 15 of 2015.
WR - Andre Johnson
LT - Anthony Castonzo
LG - Jack Mewhort
C - Jonotthan Harrison
RG - Hugh Thornton
RT - Joe Reitz
WR - Donte Moncrief
WR - T.Y. Hilton
QB - Matt Hasselbeck
TE - Coby Fleener
RB - Frank Gore
Here's what the Colts offense looked like last week in their win over the Chicago Bears.
WR - PHILLIP DORSETT
LT - Anthony Castonzo
LG - Jack Mewhort
C - RYAN KELLY
RG - DENZELLE GOOD
RT - JOE HAEG
TE - JACK DOYLE
TE - DWAYNE ALLEN
WR - T.Y. Hilton
QB - ANDREW LUCK
RB - Frank Gore
**ALL CAPS INDICATE POTENTIALLY DIFFERENT STARTER
Most significant improvement on the offense - Outside of Luck, that is, right? The addition of Kelly at center should give Colts faithful a Jeff Saturday-Peyton Manning like feel, as long as the former Crimson Tide star stays healthy. He was the brains behind the Alabama offensive operation and should, eventually, be a perfect fit for Luck and the Colts' offensive line.
**
Most impactful players that the Texans didn't face in 2015** - Luck. Period, end of story.
What will worry Texans fans the most? - Luck's back and that's meant the world to T.Y. Hilton, aka The Ghost. The fifth-year receiver has turned back into the star that he was prior to Luck's injury. How much difference does Luck make for Hilton? Hilton has 35 catches through five games for 507 yards and three touchdowns. That puts him on pace for about 108 catches for well over 1,500 yards and ten touchdowns. Last year in 16 games, Hilton had 69 catches for 1,124 yards and five touchdowns. Yeah, Luck is back, but he's also been able to get more out of No. 13 as well.
What will worry Colts fans the most? - The offensive line is a massive issue. The Colts started two rookies at center and right tackle and a second year, former seventh-round pick at right guard. Predictably, the Colts yielded five sacks to the Bears, one of the most beat up defensive fronts in the league. Opponents have piled up 20 sacks against the Colts in only five games. I'll do the math for you; that's four per game. Against Whitney Mercilus, Jadeveon Clowney and company, the Colts will be forced to remove receiving resources to add protection for Luck on Sunday night.
DEFENSE
2015 Unit Profile
Rush Defense - 122.0 ypg (25th in the NFL)
Pass Defense - 257.1 ypg (24th)
Total Defense - 379.1 ypg (26th)
Scoring Defense - 25.5 ppg (25th)
2016 Unit Profile
Rush Defense - 109.6 ypg (18th in the NFL)
Pass Defense - 301.0 ypg (28th)
Total Defense - 410.6 ypg (30th)
Scoring Defense - 29.6 ppg (30th)
Here's what the Colts defense looked like in that Week 15 matchup with the Texans in Indianapolis.
DE - Kendall Langford
NT - David Parry
DT - Zach Kerr
SLB - Erik Walden
MLB - D'Qwell Jackson
WLB - Jerrell Freeman
ROLB - Robert Mathis
LCB - Darius Butler
SS - Mike Adams
FS - Dwight Lowery
RCB - Vontae Davis
Here's the starting eleven for the Colts defense that faced Chicago last week.
DE - Kendall Langford
NT - David Parry
DT - Zach Kerr
SLB - Erik Walden
MLB - D'Qwell Jackson
WLB - JOSH McNARY
ROLB - Robert Mathis
LCB - PATRICK ROBINSON
SS - Mike Adams
FS - CLAYTON GEATHERS
RCB - Vontae Davis
**ALL CAPS INDICATE POTENTIALLY DIFFERENT STARTER
Most significant improvement on the defense - Hard to say that much has changed in Indianapolis, other than at linebacker. The Texans faced Jerrell Freeman in the opener against the Bears and the Colts defense definitely misses him. Freeman is tied for fourth in the NFL (tied with Texans linebacker Benardrick McKinney) with 48 tackles, and the Colts, apparently, had no interest in re-signing Freeman in the offseason. The Colts have improved a bit against the run, but Bears rookie running back Jordan Howard gashed the Colts for a 57-yard run and 118 yards on the ground.
Most impactful players that the Texans didn't face in 2015 - No one, really. Robinson was added this offseason, but he got torched last week and then got injured in the second half. He was starting because the Colts cut Antonio Cromartie the week prior (see what will worry Colts fans the most).
What will worry Texans fans the most? - Vontae Davis. He's healthy and ready to lock down DeAndre Hopkins. But, he hasn't traveled with receivers in the past, staying on the right side of the formation, and doesn't look like he'll travel, based on what he's done this year already. He did not travel with Alshon Jeffery of the Bears. Regardless, he's arguably the best healthy overall defensive player on either side and he'll be a thorn in the side of the Texans offense, as he is in nearly every matchup.
What will worry Colts fans the most? - There are no playmakers on this defense, minus Davis at cornerback. The Colts' pass rush has only generated seven sacks this season, but in Indianapolis, they're talking about how the Texans gave up four last week to the Vikings. The reality check is that the Colts are not the Vikings rushing the passer. If Brock Osweiler has time to throw, he can pick at the left side of the Colts defense where there may be a journeyman corner (Rashaan Melvin) starting for only the fourth time in his career. If not him, it's going to be Robinson returning with a knee issue, after getting lit up by the Bears and Brian Hoyer last week.
