John McClain, a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame and the Texas Sports Hall of Fame, is in his 48th year of covering the NFL in Houston, including 45 seasons at the Houston Chronicle.
The Texans are three-point underdogs going into their wild card playoff game against the Chargers on Saturday at NRG Stadium. Nationally, few, if any, are giving them a chance to win and advance into the divisional round.
Naturally, Head Coach DeMeco Ryans, his staff and players are hoping history repeats for the Texans.
At this time last year, the Texans were two-point underdogs against the Browns, who defeated them 36-22 on Christmas Eve at NRG Stadium. Nationally, it was widely assumed the Texans were just happy to make the playoffs in Ryans' first season and would be one and done as the AFC South Champions.
The Chargers are well-aware of what the Texans did to the Browns in the first playoff game of the 2023 postseason. They battered the Browns 45-14 in one of the most impressive performances in franchise history.
Naturally, Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, his staff and his players are hoping history doesn't repeat for the Texans.
Ryans is always careful not to look back because the past has little to do with the present other than show what the Texans were capable of doing after improving from a 3-13-1 record to 10-7 and winning the AFC South title.
This season, the question is are the Texans capable of a similar performance considering how their offense has been so inconsistent this season on the way to a second consecutive division championship?
"We're just focused on the present, what we have here now," Ryans said this week. "Last year is last year. Entirely different locker room, different group of guys."
Speaking of a "different group of guys," it's interesting to point out that, against the Chargers, the Texans will have only four starters on offense and three on defense who started in that playoff victory over Cleveland.
Injuries, performance and personnel decisions have put the Texans in this situation: Quarterback C.J. Stroud, receiver Nico Collins, left tackle Laremy Tunsil and right guard Juice Scruggs are the offensive starters who started against the Browns. End Will Anderson, linebacker Christian Harris and cornerback Derek Stingley are the only defensive starters who started in that wild card victory.
And yet the Texans finished 10-7 again and repeated as AFC South champions. They have a 5-2 record in the wild card round, defeating the Bengals two times, the Raiders, Bills and Browns and losing to the Chiefs and Colts – all as division champions playing at NRG Stadium.
But, once again, that's the past, and Ryans is more concerned with the present.
"How do we make the most out of our opportunity with the guys we have now?" he said. "(I) just want our guys to really live in that moment of where we are with what we have. Let's make the most of it."
Ryans took over a three-win team and orchestrated a seven-win transformation. Like Ryans in 2023, Harbaugh has engineered a remarkable turnaround in his first season with the Chargers. But Ryans was an untested head coach, and Harbaugh had already taken the 49ers to a Super Bowl before winning a national championship at Michigan.
Harbaugh is the first coach during the Super Bowl era to inherit two losing teams and guide them into the playoffs in his first season. Los Angeles was 5-12 last season and 11-6 this season, finishing second behind the Chiefs (15-2) in the AFC West.
"You can see (Harbaugh's) imprint on the team, how sound they are in all three phases," Ryans said. "They're very balanced offensively, run the ball well and, of course, Justin Herbert is one of the better quarterbacks in the league."
The Chargers are 20th in offense (324.3-yard average), including 17th in rushing (110.7) and 19th in passing (213.6).
Herbert threw for 3,870 yards, completed 65.9 percent of his passes, and totaled 23 touchdowns and a 101.7 rating. He threw only three interceptions, fewest in the league among regular starting quarterbacks.
"He's done a great job of just protecting the football," Ryans said. "There's a lot to be said for a quarterback who does that. (He) puts his team in good situations to move down the field."
To defeat the Chargers, the Texans will need for Stroud to play as he did in last year's wild card victory. He completed 16-of-21 for 274 yards and three touchdowns. He didn't throw an interception, and he wasn't sacked. Stroud's rating was 157.2. If he gets protection like that again, Stroud's capable of having a similar performance against the Chargers.
By his own admission, Stroud has experienced highs and lows in his second season. He had 3,727 yards, a 63.2 completion percentage, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and an 87.0 rating. He was sacked 52 times.
Ryans was impressed with how Stroud handled the ups and downs, how his leadership improved in his second season, and how he navigated the pitfalls that came with a 5-1 start and a 5-6 finish.
"C.J. is authentic, he's real," Ryans said. "As you evolve as a leader, be authentic to yourself. You don't have to make up anything or make up a speech or make up something to say to guys. C.J. is being C.J. And that's what our guys feed off -- C.J. being himself (and) understanding it's not all on him as a leader. It's all of our guys just buying in (and) doing what they have to do.
"C.J. understands a lot of guys are looking up to him, and he takes that role seriously, but it's not a heavy weight for him because we have other leaders around him, other guys that step up. We're all in a good spot. It's the playoffs. Can we be the best team on Saturday? That's all that matters for us."
Because the stakes are so high for the Texans and Chargers – win or go home – head coaches, players and play-callers have to be sharp. Mistakes are magnified. It's a cliché, of course, but the team that commits the fewest mistakes usually wins.
"At this level, if you make a mistake, it can cost you," Ryans said. "If you give good teams more opportunities to score, they're going to find a way to score.
"You cannot have mental mistakes in the playoffs. You cannot have penalties – all those things where field position is a huge battle. We have to win that field position battle every game (and) it's even more paramount now."
