The Texans are eight-point underdogs in their divisional round playoff game against the Chiefs on Saturday afternoon. If they win, they'll advance to the AFC Championship Game against the winner of Sunday night's Baltimore-Buffalo game.
If the Texans upset the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, they'll play in the first AFC Championship Game in franchise history. Houston football fans haven't had a team reach the AFC Championship Game since the Oilers after the 1979 season.
"That would be huge," quarterback C.J. Stroud said this week. "This team is really motivated to go up there and play some good ball against a great Kansas City team that's been in these moments forever."
Forever is a long time, but all good things must come to an end sooner or later, right?
The Chiefs (15-2) earned home-field advantage in the AFC. They defeated the Texans 27-19 at Arrowhead Stadium on Dec. 21. Head Coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are trying to help Kansas City become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls.
"It's a moment you dream of," Stroud said. "You watch them growing up and dream of competing in those moments. I'm very excited and ready to roll."
If the Texans are going to produce a historical performance, two things are essential: Stroud has to play great, even greater than he did in the 32-12 victory over the Chargers in the wild card round, and the defense has to contain Mahomes the way the Texans contained Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who was harassed into perhaps the worst performance of his career.
Stroud believes playing the Chiefs on Dec. 21 in the Sea of Red should benefit the Texans because they've experienced the hostile atmosphere and know what kind of reception they'll receive.
"It definitely does help that we've seen them not too long ago," Stroud said. "You have to go back and see things that worked and things that didn't work. I think that helps playing them so recently, but they also have that advantage. We still have to have a new game plan and do things that are new."
Dealing with Mahomes, the Kansas City defense and weather that should start around 27 degrees and dip into the teens by the time the game ends is a mindset. And Head Coach DeMeco Ryans talks about the significance of the team's mindset every week. Stroud and his teammates get the message.
"It's huge," Stroud said. "When you think about it, there are only eight teams left. These types of games are about who stays tight knit because crazy things happen in the playoffs."
The Texans are a tight-knit team. They finished 10-7, won the AFC South for a second consecutive season and hammered a favored team in the wild card round again. Now they want to avoid losing for the sixth time in a divisional round game on the road.
Stroud has to avoid turnovers. He has to create big plays off schedule like he did against the Chargers when his 34-yard pass to receiver Xavier Hutchinson produced a first down and a 99-yard touchdown drive that ignited the offense.
Stroud made one big play after another, including a 27-yard run in which a national television audience saw his speed and elusiveness that a lot of fans around the NFL didn't know he had.
Stroud ran six times for 42 yards, second to Joe Mixon's team-leading 106. Nobody enjoyed seeing Stroud run for big plays more than offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik.
"It's massive – we embrace that without question, especially when he does it the way he did it in the (Chargers) game," Slowik said. "He has ownership of the pocket. He feels very confident. He knows where he's going, and you threaten second-level defenders with your movement.
"When you can escape, that's a game-changer for a quarterback and how that affects the defense. For him to do that in the (Chargers) game opened up the defense and the pass game."
Ignited by a powerful performance from the offensive line, the Texans generated 168 yards rushing. In their last two games, they've averaged 187.5 yards rushing.
Ryans makes the defensive calls, but he also stays on top of the offense.
"Offensively, we have to continue to play efficient," Ryans said. "When it comes to the quick passing, getting the ball out, getting completions, allowing our playmakers to make plays -- that's part of being efficient. That helped us last week, and it'll also be a key this week, not only the quick passing game but also running the football. If you want to play well in the playoffs, you have to run the ball well.
"C.J.'s just commanding the offense. We know it's going to be loud, and we know it's going to be rowdy, so we have to be great with our communication. Everybody has to be very attentive in the huddle, making sure we're getting in and out of the huddle fast to make sure we're operating efficiently all the way across the board. When we do that, we're a really good offense."
The Texans were 22nd in offense, including 15th in rushing and 21st in passing. The Chiefs were ninth in defense, including eighth against the run and 18th against the pass. They'll want to shut down the running game, force Stroud to throw and then pressure him as quickly as possible. Tackle Chris Jones and end George Karlaftis are their best pass rushers.
"It starts with Chris Jones," Slowik said. "He's an unbelievable player. He presents a lot of problems. He makes you do adjustments to the run game and the pass game. They have a lot of schematic things to counter how you feel you may have to handle Chris Jones.
"Beyond that, they're a well-coached defense. They don't make mistakes -- they play clean football. They've got physical linebackers and scrapper DB's that make plays. At this point of the year, every defense that's left is really good, and they exemplify that."
The Chiefs should double receiver Nico Collins, Stroud's favorite target, as much as possible. They'll try to take away the slant routes that Collins utilizes to make so many explosive plays. They'll make Collins work hard on getting open every time he gets off the line of scrimmage.
That means other receivers like John Metchie III, Robert Woods and Hutchinson have to take advantage to take off some of the pressure on Collins. Also expect tight end Dalton Schultz to figure heavily into the passing game.
Slowik has to be careful to keep Stroud out of the third-and-long or longer situations he faced 91 times, second only to the Browns.
It would help the Texans' cause if the defense could dominate the Chiefs the way it dominated the Chargers. Another pick-six or two would help. The Texans had a pick-six three times in their last two wild card victories over the Browns and Chargers. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. almost recorded another pick-six against the Chargers.
It's going to be difficult to get another pick-six on Saturday because Mahomes has stopped throwing interceptions. He had 11 during the season but none in the last six games. Only once in his last nine games has Mahomes been intercepted, and that was in Kansas City's loss at Buffalo.
Mahomes has been magnificent in the divisional round, compiling a 6-0 record with 1,813 yards, a 70.4 completion percentage and 16 touchdown passes. Despite playing in bad weather, he hasn't thrown an interception, and his rating is 115.8 rating.
The Texans have to get the kind of pressure on Mahomes they got on Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who was sacked four times and was constantly under siege. He was pressured on 52 percent of his passes. Ends Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter and tackle Denico Autry combined for 17 pressures.
The front seven has to play smart and be disciplined. No quarterback makes more plays off schedule than Mahomes, whether it's with his arm or legs. In the victory over the Texans this season, he ran five times for 33 yards and a touchdown.
"Guys are wide open a lot because of the threat he poses, and he requires so much attention because he's such an elusive guy in the pocket," Ryans said. "He's such a unique playmaker with the different angles and the way he can throw the football. Whether it's underarm, sidearm -- however he wants to get it out -- he has the confidence to get the ball to his playmakers.
"You have to be sticky in coverage. You think you cover guys once, and the play's still going on, and you have to look to cover them twice. We know his escapability, not just him running the ball but also the threat of the run and him still being able to keep his eyes down field and make passes."
It seems strange to say the Texans want Mahomes to pass, but that's what defense is all about. Shut down the run, force the quarterback to throw and get takeaways. It worked to perfection against the Chargers.
In the Chiefs' victory over the Texans, they rushed for 124 yards, averaged 4.4 yards a carry and scored two touchdowns. The Texans did a good job containing the running backs, but they had trouble covering them. Samaje Perine and Kareem Hunt combined for five catches and 74 yards. That's 14.8 a catch. The Texans have to do better.
Speaking of better, that's what the Texans' defense has been, getting better since getting blown out on Christmas Day by the Ravens. They've done a better job of tackling. They've specialized in sacks, interceptions and turnovers, and that strength carried over into the Chargers' victory.
This season, they had a plus-10 turnover differential (seventh), 49 sacks (fourth), 29 takeaways (fifth) and 19 interceptions (second). They had four more interceptions against the Chargers, including two by Stingley. Cornerback Kamari Lassiter and safety Eric Murray also had interceptions, including Murray's pick-six. And rookie safety Calen Bullock matched Stingley's team-leading five interceptions during the season.
"We talk about having aggressive hands, going to get the ball, pulling it away and pulling it down," defensive coordinator Matt Burke said. "We try to say there's no such thing as a 50/50 ball – that's our ball when it's in the air. I think it's a skillset, for sure, and it's a mindset."
Burke likes what he sees of the Texans' defense going into Saturday's game.
"I feel like we're battle-tested," he said. "We've seen a lot. We've been in a lot of different types of games. This game's going to be different than the last time we played them. It's probably going to be different than any game we've played this season."
Fans will find out Saturday if the Texans are battle-tested enough to shock the Chiefs and make franchise history.
