When it comes to Saturday's wild card playoff game against the Chargers, the Texans aren't getting a lot of love around the NFL.
Outside of Houston, it's difficult to locate so-called experts who are picking the underdog Texans to defeat the Chargers and move into a divisional round game on the road.
Can the Texans beat the Chargers, who are favored by three points? Sure they can, but they'll have to play their best game since they defeated the Bills 23-20 back on Oct. 6.
The Chargers finished 11-6 in their first season under Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. They come to Houston with a three-game winning streak with victories over the Broncos, Patriots and Raiders.
The Texans finished 10-7 and won a second consecutive AFC South championship under Head Coach DeMeco Ryans. They were 1-2 in their last three games. Their attention this week has been directed toward the Chargers and not predictions that are overwhelmingly against the Texans.
"It doesn't matter if anybody give us a shot," Ryans said this week. "When the ball is kicked off, it's about who's the best team on Saturday. Everybody has an opinion about us, but outside opinion doesn't really drive what we do internally. It's like what does that do? Does it make you play harder? We (always) play hard. It doesn't change our approach one bit."
When analyzing what the Texans have to do to pull an upset, we have to look at what the Chargers do best and worst.
First, they led the NFL in fewest points allowed (17.7 a game). They committed the second-fewest turnovers (nine). Quarterback Justin Herbert threw the fewest interceptions (three). They were first in red zone defense (45.0 percent), and they allowed the fewest red zone touchdowns (18).
The Chargers were 6-3 on the road. They were plus-12 in turnover differential, and they scored 101 more points than their opponents.
Now, let's look at the Texans' strength and how vital those strengths are to defeating the Chargers.
The Texans finished sixth in defense (315-yard average), including 11th against the run (114) and sixth against the pass (201). They were plus-10 in turnover differential.
The Texans recorded 49 sacks (tied for fourth), the second consecutive season in which they set a franchise record.
Only the Bills (eighth) committed fewer turnovers than the Chargers, which means they don't beat themselves. The Texans were fifth with 29 takeaways, including second with 19 interceptions.
Some of the things the Texans didn't do well? They were 22nd in offense (319.7 yards), including 21st in passing (207.4). The only quarterback to be sacked more than C.J. Stroud was Bears' rookie Caleb Williams.
A big issue with Stroud's performance was how many obvious passing situations he faced, which is a quarterback's worst enemy. He faced third-and-9 or longer 91 times. Only the Browns were worse.
Running back Joe Mixon was among the league leaders in getting hit in the backfield. The Texans allowed the third-most touchdown passes (31). They were 26th in red zone offense (49.1 percent) and 27th in red zone defense (63.6).
Success or failure in Saturday's game depends heavily on Stroud and Herbert, how they're rushed and how they're protected. Herbert finished with 3,870 yards, a 65.9 percent completion percentage, 23 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 101.7 rating. He was sacked 41 times. He also is a splendid runner with 306 yards and two touchdowns.
"Justin is an athletic quarterback," Ryans said. "He does a good job of identifying defenses (and) getting his offense in the correct play. He (makes) smart decisions with the football. He does a really good job of just protecting the football. (It's) very difficult to take the ball away from him.
"It'll be a collective effort. We have to have a good rush upfront. We have to be where our coverage is, and we have to be disciplined in our coverages and know he's athletic enough to escape the pocket and get out. (I'm) impressed with what he's done throughout his career."
Stroud finished with 3,727 yards, a 63.2 completion percentage, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and an 87.0 rating. He was sacked 52 times.
The Texans had eight offensive linemen who started at least one game, and they used seven different combinations.
The best way for the Texans to defeat the Chargers starts with the offensive line, where tackles Laremy Tunsil and Blake Fisher, guards Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs and center Jarrett Patterson will try to protect Stroud and open holes for running backs Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce.
The Chargers finished 11th in defense (324.4), including 14th against the run (117.5) and seventh against the pass (206.4).
The Texans have to run the ball effectively, avoid sacks and too much pressure and have Stroud be accurate and consistent throwing the ball.
An interesting statistic shows the Texans and Chargers weren't good against teams that also made the playoffs. The Texans finished 1-5 against playoff teams and lost by an average of 11 points a game. The Chargers closed with a 2-5 record against playoff teams and were outscored by five points a game.
The Chargers played in a tougher division, the AFC West that featured three playoff teams, including division-champion Kansas City and Denver.
Against playoff teams, Stroud averaged 215.5 yards passing to go with five touchdowns, eight interceptions and 20 sacks. Herbert averaged 207.2 yards and had eight touchdowns, two interceptions and 19 sacks.
Protection was a problem for both teams, and both teams have terrific pass rushers. Even though Herbert is mobile and doesn't mind running, he prefers to throw from the pocket. That's where the Texans' pass rush, specifically ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., comes into play. They combined for 23 sacks this season.
The Texans have to be at their best if they plan to win and advance into the divisional round. Avoid turnovers, protect Stroud, run the ball well on first down, avoid third-and-long situations, refrain from foolish penalties, shut down the run, pressure Herbert and make the Chargers kick field goals in the red zone rather than score touchdowns.
If this game is decided by special teams, there aren't too many teams better than the Texans.
"They're good, we're good, and that's what playoff football is about," Ryans said. "With our defensive line versus their offensive line, that'll be the key matchup. They've done a really good job of protecting Justin all year, and we've gotten after the passer pretty good. Who's going to win that matchup? We're going to have a lot of opportunities (and) we're up for the challenge."
