John McClain, a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame and the Texas Sports Hall of Fame, is in his 48th year of covering the NFL in Houston, including 45 seasons at the Houston Chronicle.
The Texans saw what happened last season to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday's opponent at Everbank Stadium.
The Texans haven't lost at Jacksonville since 2017. They're trying to bounce back from Sunday's loss at NRG Stadium to Tennessee. The Titans came to Houston with a 2-8 record and departed with a 32-27 upset victory.
Once again, the Texans are favored against a bad AFC South opponent, and they're hungry for a victory that would increase their winning streak in Jacksonville to seven games.
The Texans are 2-4 after a 5-1 start. The Jaguars are 2-9, coming off a bye week and don't know if quarterback Trevor Lawrence can return from an injury to his left shoulder that caused him to miss the last two games.
The Jaguars can provide a cautionary tale about what can happen to a team that makes a remarkable turnaround, has high expectations and experiences some pitfalls they can't overcome.
In 2022, their first season under Head Coach Doug Pederson, the Jaguars closed with five consecutive victories and won the AFC South with a 9-8 record. In the wild-card round, they made a stunning comeback at home and defeated the Chargers. They lost by seven in the divisional round at Kansas City.
In 2023, the Jaguars were the consensus pick to repeat as division champions. They had a splendid offseason acquiring players in free agency and the draft. Lawrence appeared to be on the verge of becoming the generational quarterback everyone predicted in 2021 when he was the first overall pick in the draft.
The Jaguars picked up last season where they left off in 2022. When they beat the Texans at NRG Stadium, it gave them an 8-3 record and a comfortable two-game lead over the Texans in the AFC South. They were on a 13-3 stretch dating back to the end of the 2022 regular season.
But then Jacksonville started to lose. Injuries piled up. Lawrence wasn't living up to expectations. They suffered close losses and decisive losses. They made mistakes at crucial times, including too many penalties. They seemed to lose confidence, and they never recovered, winning only one of their last six games.
Still, all the Jaguars needed to do was to defeat Tennessee in the last game of the season on the road to secure back-to-back division titles. The Titans went to Jacksonville with a three-game losing streak and a 5-11 record. Head Coach Mike Vrabel was about to be fired.
View the best photos from the Week 12 matchup between the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans.
When the Texans won at Indianapolis to finish 10-7, they clinched at least a wild-card spot in the playoffs. They needed the Titans to beat the Jaguars, and they did, 28-20. Jacksonville finished 9-8 and tied for second place with Indianapolis, one game behind the Texans.
The Jaguars still haven't recovered. After their 8-3 start last season, they're 3-14, and Pederson is on the hot seat because he and his staff haven't been able to engineer a transformation since they left Houston with a 24-21 victory on Nov. 26.
Going into Sunday's game, the similarities between what's happening to the Texans this season compared to the Jaguars last season are striking.
One season after earning the AFC South crown and defeating the Browns in the wild-card round, the Texans were the consensus pick to successfully defend their division title. There was speculation they might even be Super Bowl contenders in their second season under Head Coach DeMeco Ryans.
The Texans won five of their first six games. But then injuries and mistakes started to pile up. They were penalized 11 times for 81 yards in their loss to the Titans. They've committed the second-most penalties for the second-most yards in the NFL.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud is struggling with consistency. The offensive line has allowed him to be sacked 39 times, one more than last season. He's the most pressured quarterback in the league. He's thrown nine interceptions, four more than last season. Receivers have dropped passes. In the last two games, Stroud thrown touchdown passes to Nico Collins that were called back because of penalties.
The defense is second in the league with 42 sacks and will shatter the team record of 46 set last season. The Texans lead the league in pressuring quarterbacks. Ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have combined for 20 sacks. And yet the defense has surrendered a league-high 24 touchdown passes.
No wonder the Texans have lost four of their last six games. Five games remain in the season, and Sunday is a must-win situation.
After visiting Jacksonville, the Texans have their bye week. They close the season at home against Miami, at Kansas City, at home against Baltimore and at Tennessee, a team that'll be looking to sweep the division series.
If the Texans need any extra incentive about what's at stake in Jacksonville, all they have to do is to look across the field at the Jaguars to see what can happen to them if they don't undergo a quick metamorphosis and become the team they're capable of being.
