HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!!
Here we go, short week, Wednesday game, Christmas on Netflix, H-Town unis and Beyonce too?!?
Man, there's a lot going on in this game with the Ravens, who've won 10 of their last 13 games. Baltimore is led by two of the biggest Texans villains of all-time: 2x MVP QB Lamar Jackson and former Titans RB Derrick Henry.
From the last matchup in 2019 through the end of 2023, Henry wasn't just a thorn in the sides of the Texans; that dude was a full on Crocodile Dundee knife to the heart. He hammered the Texans through some lean years, rushing for 200 yards four times against the Texans (2019 finale, both games in 2020, one in 2022) in that time frame. However, the 2023 Texans defense finally, FINALLY, slowed him down to pre-2019 numbers in both games against Tennessee in 2023. They held him to 51 yards on 28 carries.
But the #8 that was handing him the ball in 2023 wasn't THIS #8,. Jackson has owned the Texans in his four outings against them, sporting a 4-0 record against Houston. How bad has it been with Jackson under center? The combined score: Ravens - 133 v. Texans - 42, an average game score of 33-10. Yuck.
The even worse news is that Jackson is playing the BEST ball of his career in 2024, even if the MVP has already been delivered to Buffalo's Josh Allen (that's tongue in cheek because the media seemed to already have voted for Josh before these final two key games.) Either way, Jackson continues to evolve into an all-around pass/run weapon and now he's got Henry to rely upon to take the pounding that Jackson typically received on a regular basis.
As I mentioned heading into Week 1 last year and the Division round playoff game, head coach DeMeco Ryans leads his guys into a massive matchup with Baltimore and his squad MUST bust the 800-lb monster right in the mouth. If not, it's going to be as long a day, on Christmas, no less, as every other contest against the Lamar era Ravens has been. Furthermore, the Texans haven't beaten the Ravens since a Week 16 matchup…in 2014. Ten years later, it's time to do it again.
With all of that in mind, let's get to know the Texans' Christmas Day foe in week 17 - the Baltimore Ravens
2024 Baltimore Ravens Schedule (10-5)
Week 1 - L @ Kansas City Chiefs 27-20
Week 2 - L Las Vegas Raiders 26-23
Week 3 - W @ Dallas Cowboys 28-25
Week 4 - W Buffalo Bills 35-10
Week 5 - W @ Cincinnati Bengals 41-38
Week 6 - W Washington Commanders 30-23
Week 7 - W @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41-31
Week 8 - L @ Cleveland Browns 29-24
Week 9 - W Denver Broncos 41-10
Week 10 - W Cincinnati Bengals 35-34
Week 11 - L @ Pittsburgh Steelers 18-16
Week 12 - W @ Los Angeles Chargers 30-23
Week 13 - L Philadelphia Eagles 24-19
Week 14 - BYE WEEK
Week 15 - W @ New York Giants 35-14
Week 16 - W Pittsburgh Steelers 34-17
Week 17 - @ Houston Texans (CHRISTMAS GAME)
Week 18 - Cleveland Browns
Ravens OFFENSE in 2024
Rushing Yards Per game - 181.2 ypg (2nd in the NFL in 2024)
Passing Yards Per game - 242.5 ypg (3rd)
Total offense per game - 423.7 ypg (1st)
Turnovers lost - 11 (7 Fumbles lost, 4 INT)
Expected Ravens starting offense for Week 17
QB - Lamar Jackson
RB - DERRICK HENRY
WR - Zay Flowers
WR - Rashod Bateman
TE - Mark Andrews
TE - Isaiah Likely
LT - Ronnie Stanley
LG - Patrick Mekari
C - Tyler Linderbaum
RG - Daniel Faalele
RT - ROGER ROSENGARTEN
*FB - Patrick Ricard
Key Offensive Non-Starters
RB - Justice Hill
TE - Charlie Kolar
WR - Nelson Agholor
WR/PR - Tylan Wallace
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Ravens Offense
- He's BACK and he's BETTER - When it comes to Jackson, I remind myself that it actually could be worse. On Draft Night 2018, the Jacksonville Jaguars were sitting there at pick #28 with a shot at drafting him and passed, thankfully, for DT Taven Bryan. Yeah, I know. Their passing on Lamar gave Baltimore the chance to draft the dynamic superstar with the last pick of the first round. Two MVPs, a thousand YouTube highlights and six years later, Jackson has done just about everything in the game of football, except get to a Super Bowl. The Texans stand in the way, again, because a Texans win could make Baltimore the wild card team, not the AFC North champions. But, a Texans win isn't going to happen if Jackson makes plays in the second half and the Texans fail to capitalize on any small opportunity that Jackson provides. Case in point, in the Divisional playoff game, the Texans held strong, for the most part, until a key third down completion from Jackson kept an early third quarter drive alive. Upon review, the ball went right through S Jalen Pitre's hands for the completion. Knock that down and it's a field goal drive and a tie game at the time. But, it ended up as a first down completion, not a PBU. Then, on his very next play, Pitre jumped in front of a Jackson pass and had the ball in his hands for a backbreaking pick in the end zone…but the ball squirted away. Next play? Jackson ran a QB draw into the end zone for the go-ahead TD, a lead that the Ravens would not relinquish. The Texans frustrated him early in that game, but didn't make plays to FINISH in the second half. This defense has put opposing, visiting QBs in he-- at NRG Stadium, but Jackson is right there next to Josh Allen (Bills) as the best QBs that the Texans have faced in this building. The Texans won that Bills game because of what they put Allen through; they'll need to do something similar this week as well to have a shot at beating Lamar, finally.
- It's all about the Runway- I wish that I were talking about Project Runway or some modeling exhibition, but when it comes to success for Henry, it's all about the Runway. Having seen Henry twice a year (minus injuries in 2021) since 2016, I'm tired of watching the big fella run the ball. I'd like for him to take the day off on Christmas Day as a gift to his many fans here in Houston. I kid, I kid (kind of), but when he has a downhill lane, runway as it were, he's a problem. A real, 250-lb downhill with a head of steam problem. That's what the Texans took away from him last year in the two wins over Tennessee. They forced Henry to stop and change direction in the backfield before he got to the line of scrimmage and that allowed pursuit to get to him before he could get the motor going. They, then, killed his engine with solid tackling around his waist and legs. Tackling him up high is going to put dudes on a YouTube video or on Kyle Brandt's next version of Angry Runs. That puts the onus on the defensive front to win one-on-one matchups up front and VIOLENTLY get off blocks to keep Henry from sprinting through a clean gap…after strolling right down the runway.
- Tight Ends GALORE! - Ravens' TEs Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely provide the perfect tonic for teams that spend too much time focused on #8 and #22. Andrews missed both games against the Texans last year, but Likely was a factor, scoring a key touchdown in the fourth quarter to salt away the Divisional Playoff win over the Texans. Both are physical enough as run blockers, but they provide that much more in the passing game than most pairs of tight ends in the league. Plus, defensive foci are so geared for Jackson and Henry that these two get open more than should be allowed. I'd expect the Ravens to try to exploit personnel groupings with these two tight ends. When they're in the game, it's 12 personnel, which can be either run or pass for most offenses, but even more tricky when these two. That alone makes matching them with the proper defensive personnel so difficult. Being GREAT on first and second down is paramount to knowing 100% pass or run with these two in the game and then covering these two phenomenal talents at tight end as well as possible.
Ravens DEFENSE in 2024
Rushing Yards Allowed Per game - 83.1 ypg (1st in the NFL)
Passing Yards Allowed Per game - 254.9 ypg (31st)
Total offense Allowed per game - 338.0 ypg (16th)
Turnovers generated - 14 (9 INT, 5 Fumble recoveries - Ravens are +3 in TO margin in 2024)
Expected Ravens starting defense for Week 17
DE - Broderick Washington
NT - Travis Jones
DT - Nnamdi Madubuike
OLB - Tavius Robinson
ILB - Roquan Smith
LB - Malik Harrison
CB - NATE WIGGINS
Nickel/CB - Marlon Humphrey (goes inside in nickel, Wiggins to the outside)
S - Ar'Darius Washington
S - Marcus Williams
CB - Brandon Stephens
S/Nickel - Kyle Hamilton
Key Defensive Non-Starters
OLB - Kyle Van Noy
LB - Chris Board
OLB - Odafe Oweh
NT - Michael Pierce
LB - Trenton Simpson
DE - Brent Urban
OLB - David Ojabo
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Ravens Defense
- The Zero- In both games last year in Baltimore, the Texans just couldn't get a hat on star LB Roquan Smith. I mean, nothing. He just ran to the ball, struck down white-jerseyed Texans and talked mess all 120 minutes combined. The Ravens run defense is so good because it allows Smith to get to the ball clean more often than not. Teams just haven't had success controlling the down linemen AND getting a hat up to the linebacker level to control Smith. The good news, in some sense, is that Texans RB Joe Mixon has faced Smith a few times when Mixon was in Cincinnati. But that doesn't help the Texans OL that has also faced Smith twice in the last 15 months. Unlike some super aggressive LBs, Smith tempers his aggressiveness to stay consistent in his run fits AND his pass coverage responsibilities. The Texans run game must have success and it becomes that much more effective if, IF, the Texans can block #0 THIS time, as opposed to the two previous matchups in 2023.
- Harris 100 #1, Class of 2022 - Heading into the 2022 NFL Draft, I was uber-confident that Ravens S Kyle Hamilton was the best player in that class and number one in the Harris 100. It was not a QB-heavy class but that didn't matter to me as Hamilton struck me as a 10-12 year future All-Pro. His 40-time at the Combine had people scoffing at my declaration, but after three years in Baltimore, Hamilton has proven those detractors wrong and has been EVEN better than I thought he would be. He was 1st Team All-Pro in his second season and has become the focal point for a defense loaded with front seven talent the past two years. The Ravens use him just as I thought his future NFL team would/should - move him around the formation, tap into his explosive, varied skill set and let Hamilton ball. The Texans offense must account for him in different ways throughout the game. If he's near the box, they might have to treat him as a LB so he doesn't run through unaccounted for in the blitz game. In coverage, he has such great instincts, especially in the red zone, to take away what opposing passing games do extremely well. C.J. Stroud will have to use his eyes well to keep Hamilton well away from where Stroud would like to throw the ball. If not, Hamilton will take the ball away quickly and often.
- He's back…and he's making plays - The Texans were fortunate to not face Marlon Humphrey in either contest last year, but he's back in the Ravens secondary…unfortunately. If there's a defensive back that I've respected more in the league for his smarts, ball skills and tackling ability, well, there just isn't one. Humphrey can play inside and outside and when the Ravens go to nickel, he'll more than likely move inside to allow rookie Nate Wiggins to move outside. That's where I think Humphrey's instincts and playmaking ability take over even more. He's always around the ball and the Texans MUST have ball security on their mind or Humphrey is going to Peanut Punch his way to a couple of punchouts in this game. The Texans can throw the ball on this defense, but #44 makes it awfully difficult in his area of the field.
