The mere mention of the Indianapolis Colts in this building, and in this town, emits such PTSD…and for good reason.
The Colts have won or tied the last four games against the Texans at NRG Stadium and the Texans have won just one time against the Colts in the last eight games here in Houston. Furthermore, the Texans have only beaten the Colts three times in a row one time in their series history (2015's second game and both games in 2016). And, the Colts own a 33-12-1 record over the Texans.
But, BUT, the Texans won the last two, both of which occurred at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. It's time for the Texans to own the home field and become the bully in this relationship even though it won't be easy against the 4-3 Colts.
In 2024, the Colts have found ways to win games, but they won two of those with Joe Flacco leading the way. In the three games Flacco started this season, the Colts averaged 27 points per game. In the four games Anthony Richardson started, the Colts averaged 18.5 points per contest. But in the opener, Richardson threw THREE passes that no one else in the league could complete. If he does that again, the Colts will be right in this game and score more than 18.5 points.
He should have some help back this week in the form of Texans Killer, running back Jonathan Taylor. The Pro Bowler found a nice groove after the Texans held him to 48 yards in the opener. But he was injured in the win over Pittsburgh in Week 4 and hasn't played since. He projects to be back in this one and that's a problem for the Texans defense, amongst other things.
So it's Round 2 in Houston after the first round went to the Texans in Indy.
Let's get to know even more about the Texans Week 8 foe, one the Texans haven't beaten at NRG Stadium since 2019.
2024 Indianapolis Colts Schedule (4-3)
Week 1 - L Houston Texans 29-27
Week 2 - L @ Green Bay Packers 16-10
Week 3 - W Chicago Bears 21-16
Week 4 - W Pittsburgh Steelers 27-24
Week 5 - L @ Jacksonville Jaguars 37-34
Week 6 - W @ Tennessee Titans 20-17
Week 7 - W Miami Dolphins 16-10
Week 8 - @ Houston Texans
Week 9 - @ Minnesota Vikings
Week 10 - Buffalo Bills
Week 11 - @ New York Jets
Week 12 - Detroit Lions
Week 13 - @ New England Patriots
Week 14 - BYE WEEK
Week 15 - @ Denver Broncos
Week 16 - Tennessee Titans
Week 17 - @ New York Giants
Week 18 - Jacksonville Jaguars
Colts OFFENSE (in 2024 regular season)
Rushing Yards Per game - 123.0 ypg (14th in the NFL)
Passing Yards Per game - 206.3 ypg (17th)
Total offense per game - 329.3 ypg (16th)
Turnovers lost - 9 (2 Fumbles lost, 7 INT)
Expected Colts starting offense for Week 8
QB - Anthony Richardson
RB - Jonathan Taylor (injured last week, I expect him to play)
TE - Mo Alie-Cox
WR - Michael Pittman Jr.
WR - Josh Downs
WR - Alec Pierce
LT - Bernhard Raimann
LG - Quenton Nelson
C - Ryan Kelly
RG - DALTON TUCKER
RT - Braden Smith
Key Offensive Non-Starters
QB - JOE FLACCO
RB - Trey Sermon
RB - Tyler Goodson
WR - Ashton Dulin
WR - ADONAI MITCHELL
TE - Kylen Granson
TE - Drew Ogletree
OT - Blake Freeland
OG - Danny Pinter
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Colts Offense
- Dr. Anthony or Mr. Richardson? - Richardson is the most athletically gifted QB in the NFL. Period. End of story. However, he is also an athlete playing QB right now. It's a maddening dichotomy for the Colts. In Week 1, he completed just 47.4% of his throws, but he stoked the Colts fan base for "what he COULD do" after three incredible throws that put the Colts in position to win. However, his highest completion percentage in a game in which he's thrown more than four passes is 50%. Against Miami, he started two for nine, but he ran it 14 times for 56 yards to lead Indy back from 10-0 down. He's thrown six interceptions and just three touchdowns. Yet, he's the scariest guy on the field, again, because of what he CAN do, not what he's been doing. He's going to run it ten times and take ten hits, but he may knock out a Texans defensive back in the process. He's a walking QB dichotomy. So, which Richardson shows up on Sunday? Dr. Anthony who dissects the defense or Mr. Richardson who gets dissected by the defense?
- Pierce the Punisher - In the preseason, there was a ton of talk from Indy that people weren't really sure what Alec Pierce's role was going to be on this roster. Michael Pittman Jr is the number one. Josh Downs is the stud slot WR. The new guy Adonai Mitchell has all the athletic ability in the world and the guy thought to take Pierce's targets. But in Week 1, Pierce made mincemeat of the Texans secondary. He ran by everyone on his 65-yard touchdown catch, straight ran by everyone. Then, he MOSS'D the secondary on a key catch well down the field on his second one that put the Colts in position for a fourth quarter TD. He had two 60+ yard catches in the first game and a 65-yard TD to tie the game in Jacksonville a few weeks later. He may not catch but two or three passes in this game, but the Texans can't allow any of those catches to be of the 50-60 yard variety. If Pierce gets one down the field, it's a punishing blow.
- JT28 the Warrior- After registering just three yards per carry and 48 total yards total against the Texans, Jonathan Taylor is coming for everyone. I've documented his six game "destroy the Texans" mission to start his career, so he was not used to the Texans slowing him to a complete stop. He then ran for 103 against Green Bay the next week, 110 against Chicago the next week and then 88 against Pittsburgh the next week. But, in that Steelers game, he suffered a high ankle sprain and hasn't played since. So, he returned to practice on Wednesday and I don't see any way that he isn't playing on Sunday. Similar to week one, the Texans need to do a great job eliminating Taylor's space, forcing him to stop his feet, change direction with nowhere to find a seam.
Colts DEFENSE (in 2024 regular season)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per game - 159.9 ypg (31st in the NFL)
Passing Yards Allowed Per game - 222.1 ypg (23rd)
Total offense Allowed per game - 382.0 ypg (29th)
Turnovers generated - 11 (4 INT, 7 Fumble recoveries - Colts are +2 in TO margin in 2024)
Expected Colts starting defense for Week 8
DE - Kwity Paye
DT - DeForest Buckner (opened 21 day window, expect him to be back)
DT - Grover Stewart
DE - LAIATU LATU or Dayo Odeyingbo
LB - Zaire Franklin
LB - E.J. Speed (injured last week)
Nickel - Kenny Moore II
CB - Jaylon Jones
S - Julian Blackmon
S - Nick Cross
CB - SAMUEL WOMACK III
Key Defensive Non-Starters
NT - RAEKWON DAVIS
DT - Adetomiwa Adebawore
DT - Taven Bryan
LB - Sequin Olubi
LB/ST - Grant Stuard
LB - JAYLON CARLIES
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Colts Defense
- Who's The Bully?- After years, YEARS, of watching DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart act like the big, bad bully on the block, the Texans physically beat the heck out of the Colts front seven in Week 1 in Indianapolis. With RB Joe Mixon in the lineup, the Texans have tapped into that physical side of the offensive line as Joe has run for 100+ yards in every game that he's started/finished. The Colts defensive front has struggled ever since stopping the run. The Packers went for 261 yards on them one week after the Texans went over 200 in the opener. The Steelers, Jaguars, Titans and Dolphins all ran for 122+. It was Miami last week that ran for 188 on the Colts in a 16-10 loss. However, DeForest Buckner should return this week and that'll help the Colts front, but I wouldn't mind seeing the Texans be the bully again this week to show the first time wasn't an aberration but a soon-to-be-continued trend.
- K Mo - From the very first time that I saw Kenny Moore on the field, I was smitten with his game. He could do everything in the secondary. He played man-to-man well. He impacted the run defense. He tackled everything that moved. He blitzed off the edge. He could be a nickel, safety or perimeter CB. Whenever the Texans line up across from him, I worry about the plays that he can make out on the field. This is the kind of game that he can muddy with his presence all over the secondary. Given the fact that the Colts struggled so much against the run in the opener, I wouldn't be totally surprised to see #23 down near the box all day to help support the defense against Mixon and company.
- No Nico? The Colts DBs are in heaven- In Week 18's Know Your Foe last year, I listed as one of my Keys to the Game - "Attack the Corners" - and my man OC Bobby Slowik was reading/listening. On the first play of the game, he called the unforgettable deep shot to WR Nico Collins from QB C.J. Stroud that gave the Texans a 7-3 lead right out of the chute. Then, in week one of this year, Nico dominated again, scorching the Colts for six catches for 117 yards. Nightmare fuel for the Colts…until it was announced that Nico was going on IR a couple of weeks ago. I can imagine that the Colts secondary breathed a sigh of relief when that news came forth. Now, throw in the fact that the Texans offense has thrown for a total of 231 yards COMBINED the last two weeks without Nico in the lineup. The Colts secondary will cherish not seeing Nico on Sunday, but the Texans passing game must find its way against the guys in blue and white without Nico this weekend.
