When the clock hit all zeroes on Sunday afternoon at NRG Stadium, the shock of losing to the formerly 2-8 Tennessee Titans was near an all-time high. I'm not sure that even the Titans thought for sure they could win that game, but they made every single winning play for their third win of the season.

But no one around here cares about the Titans and the amount of worry for this Texans team reached a fever pitch in the 48-72 hours after the loss. Call it what you want - Crisis of Confidence, Football existentialism or even Team on the Brink - but Week 13 is one of the most important points in the 2024 season and it comes on a week when the Texans must travel to another AFC South opponent.

Now, the Texans have won eight of nine trips to Duval County since 2014, including the first win of the DeMeco Ryans era last year in Week 3. That game started the turn for the Texans, but this game marks an inflection point for this organization. A win gets the Texans to 8-5, no worse than 2.5 games up on the Colts with a bye upcoming and four games remaining after that bye. However, a loss in Jacksonville and the season moves even closer to the edge than it already is. Jacksonville has struggled all season long but it's a team coming off of an embarrassing loss to Detroit and a bye week. If Jacksonville is going to do it, this is that week. But, it CAN'T be that week for Houston.

They're ALL important, but this one is even more so, given what happened to, and for, the Texans last week. As such, let's get to Know the Texans' Week 13 Foe, again - the Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars 2024 Schedule (2-9)

Week 1 - L @ Miami Dolphins 20-17

Week 2 - L Cleveland Browns 18-13

Week 3 - L @ Buffalo Bills 47-10

Week 4 - L @ Houston Texans 24-20

Week 5 - W Indianapolis Colts 37-34

Week 6 - L @ Chicago Bears 35-16

Week 7 - W New England Patriots 32-16

Week 8 - L Green Bay Packers 30-27

Week 9 - L @ Philadelphia Eagles 28-23

Week 10 - L Minnesota Vikings 12-7

Week 11 - L @ Detroit Lions 52-6

Week 12 - BYE WEEK

Week 13 - Houston Texans

Week 14 - @ Tennessee Titans

Week 15 - New York Jets

Week 16 - @ Las Vegas Raiders

Week 17 - Tennessee Titans

Week 18 - @ Indianapolis Colts

Jaguars OFFENSE (in 2024 regular season)

Rushing Yards Per game - 101.6 ypg (25th in the NFL)

Passing Yards Per game - 189.2 ypg (27th)

Total offense per game - 290.8 ypg (30th)

Turnovers lost - 16 (9 INT, 7 Fumbles lost)

Expected Jaguars starting offense for Week 13

QB - Trevor Lawrence OR MAC JONES

RB - Travis Etienne

WR - Parker Washington

WR - Tim Jones

WR - BRIAN THOMAS JR

TE - Evan Engram

LT - Walker Little

LG - Ezra Cleveland

C - MITCH MORSE

RG - Brandon Scherff

RT - Anton Harrison

Other Key Offensive pieces

RB - Tank Bigsby

TE - Brenton Strange

WR - DEVIN DUVERNAY

OT - Walker Little

OC - Luke Fortner

Italics - Rookie

ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024

Keys to winning v. the Jaguars Offense

1. Engram's Back- When most quarterbacks are asked who their number one pass-catcher is, you know, the one guy they want to highlight in a key situation, their go-to guy, the common answer is the OPEN one. I think that's a great media answer, but I've never met a QB that didn't have his favorite blanket, his wubby, the one he relies on more than any other. I believe that guy for Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is Jaguars TE Evan Engram. It's not just the volume of targets and touches over the years, but it's seen in the rocky performances in the passing game without Engram. He didn't play in the first matchup against the Texans and QB Trevor Lawrence missed him GREATLY. But he's back and both Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence have made sure that he's been targeted. Since he returned from IR against Chicago in London, Engram's been targeted 45 times and if the Texans pass rush is getting after Lawrenece/Jones, Engram is going to have eight to ten targets and with that many targets, against a defense that won't have Jalen Pitre, he could/should be a major problem.

2. Big D- During the 2014 season, it was magical to watch J.J. Watt every single week. Each and every outing, he made plays, nearly on command. I remember on a Thursday night, The Voice of the Texans Marc Vandermeer implored Watt to make a play against the Colts and he did! I bring up Watt because there have been plenty of great defensive performances since then, but none on the level of what Danielle Hunter has done the past two weeks, especially last week against the Titans. He registered sacks nearly on command and finished with five TFLs, in addition to his three sacks. The Titans tried everything, just as the Cowboys did, and the Katy, TX product turned their efforts against them. This week, he won't face LT Cam Robinson as the Jaguars traded their former starting left tackle to Minnesota. So, it's Houston native Walker Little on the left side and second year OT Anton Harrison on the right side. Harrison has been excellent since arriving in 2023, but Danielle Hunter is ON one right now and the Jaguars may not have any answers for the run he's on right now.

3. BTJ- During last year's draft season, the thoughts of many analysts on Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. were a bit all over the place. "One year wonder". "Human 9 route". "An Athlete playing WR". But the Thomas that I saw in week four was as close to a complete receiver as I've seen any rookie receiver in the first month of his career. He IS incredibly fast but he was definitely more polished at the receiver position than many anticipated. Without Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk, BTJ is THE receiving option in the passing game for the Jaguars. Without those two other passing options, the Texans could travel Derek Stingley Jr. with BTJ and have a little LSU-on-LSU violence, so to speak. They could also roll coverage to Thomas in certain situations to limit his impact. He caught six passes for 86 yards and a first half touchdown in the first game and if Jacksonville has designs on upsetting the Texans, he'll need that and then some this weekend at home in Duval County.

Jaguars DEFENSE (in 2024 regular season)

Rushing Yards Allowed Per game - 135.5 ypg (26th in the NFL)

Passing Yards Allowed Per game - 278.3 ypg (32nd)

Total offense Allowed per game - 413.7 ypg (32nd)

Turnovers generated - 8 (5 INT, 3 fumbles recovered, Jaguars are -8 in TO margin)

Expected Jaguars starting defense for Week 13

DE - Josh Hines-Allen

DT - DaVon Hamilton

DT - Tyler Lacy

DE - Travon Walker

WLB - Devin Lloyd

MLB - Foye Oluokun

SLB - Ventrell Miller

CB - Tyson Campbell

S - DARNELL SAVAGE

S - Andre Cisco

CB - RONALD DARBY

Nickel - JARRIAN JONES

Other Key Defensive pieces

DE - ARIK ARMSTEAD

DT - Jeremiah Ledbetter

DE - Yasir Abdullah

DT - JORDAN JEFFERSON

S/ST - Daniel Thomas

CB - Montaric Brown

Italics - Rookie

ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024

Keys to winning v. the Jaguars Defense

1. Foye Back- Like Evan Engram, LB Foye Oluokun is back in the starting lineup. When the Jaguars signed LB Foye Oluokun from the Atlanta Falcons in 2022, I was furious. I have ALWAYS loved and respected the way the former Ivy Leaguer played the game, not to mention his success against the Texans. In games against the Texans, he averaged over ten tackles every time he faced the Texans, in addition to a sack, two QB hits and two TFL, in four games against Houston. He is a constant pain in the backside and with the emergence of Ventrell Miller (starting in week four against the Texans because Oluokun was out), the Jaguars linebackers must be accounted for on every single down. If Oluokun is running around making plays on Texans RB Joe Mixon early in the game, it could be a long afternoon in Duval county.

2. Ravaged Secondary- The Jaguars have been torched through the air this season, yielding the worst yards per game average in the league. The Jaguars defense plays a ton of man-to-man coverage and there's a long list of top-notch NFL QBs that have lit them up like a XMAS tree, including the Lions' Jared Goff who had more TD than incompletions in a 52-6 Lions blowout win. But, star CB Tyson Campbell, who went on IR after Week 1, is back for this matchup. He relishes facing Nico Collins, so that's a matchup worth watching, but the Texans must throw the ball effectively as they did in week four this year and in week three last year. If there's such a thing as a get right passing game, it's this one against the worst pass defense in football. If the QB C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense don't light up the Jaguars through the air, it'll be for one reason and one reason only.

3. That reason- What does give me pause, in a sense, is the Jaguars pass rush. The two edge rushers - Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker - are as strong an edge duo as there is in the game. Now, the Texans OL hasn't been a beacon of consistency, but the tackles - Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard - have been relatively solid in pass protection. It's the interior that has struggled the most, but the past two weeks have been better in terms of the Texans' OL giving up sacks. The Cowboys had just one sack and the Titans didn't have a ton of success until mostly into the fourth quarter. Then, the dam broke, unfortunately, when the Texans were forced to throw 100% of the time. So, has that interior unit - Juice Scruggs, Jarrett Patterson and Shaq Mason - found a few answers? Perhaps, but the overall play from that unit still needs to be cleaner and more effective to give Stroud the time he needs to complete passes in the intermediate and deep areas of the field.