Six weeks ago, the Texans had just finished a three Prime Time game spree with a blowout win over the Dallas Cowboys. The chance to win three in a row before the bye week in Week 14 was real and extremely appetizing for the Texans at point in the season.
Beat Dallas. Knock off Tennessee. Win in Jacksonville for the fifth year in a row. That's a 3-game winning streak heading into the break. Boom. Done.
Well, it WOULD'VE been, I mean. The Titans were in no mood to cede to the Texans in Houston and pulled off a massive upset that shocked everyone in the building and around the NFL. Titans QB Will Levis launched bombs and hit on shot plays that he hadn't hit before, or since. As a result, the Titans walked out with an improbable 32-27 win that shook the foundation of the Texans' season in Week 12.
Since then? Well, the Titans have been the mess that I was hoping they should've been in Houston. They immediately gave up 42 points to Jayden Daniels and company the next week. The Colts had them down 38-7 before allowing garbage time TDs in the second half. Last week, the Titans couldn't score in a loss to the Mac Jones-led Jaguars in Duval County.
So here comes Sunday's contest, one that ALWAYS matters just a little bit more than the others. But the weird thing is the Titans really don't want to win this game because of the impact it can have on their draft positioning. The Texans would love to win number ten on the season but regardless of the outcome, they'll be the 4-seed and will play at home on Wild Card Weekend.
Yeah, weird dynamic in this one, to say the least, but the Texans haven't had double digit win seasons often in their history.
2011
2012
2018
2019
2023
In all but 2018, they advanced to the Divisional round playoff game, so let's get win 10 and see if the trend holds. As such, let's get to Know the Texans' Week 18 Foe - the Tennessee Oil…errr, Titans.
2024 Tennessee Titans Schedule (3-13)
Week 1 - L @ Chicago Bears 24-17
Week 2 - L New York Jets 24-17
Week 3 - L Green Bay Packers 30-14
Week 4 - W @ Miami Dolphins 31-12
Week 5 - BYE WEEK
Week 6 - L Indianapolis Colts 20-17
Week 7 - L @ Buffalo Bills 34-10
Week 8 - L @ Detroit Lions 52-14
Week 9 - W New England Patriots 20-17 (OT)
Week 10 - L @ Los Angeles Chargers 27-17
Week 11 - L Minnesota Vikings 23-13
Week 12 - W @ Houston Texans 32-27
Week 13 - L @ Washington Commanders 42-19
Week 14 - L Jacksonville Jaguars 10-6
Week 15 - L Cincinnati Bengals 37-27
Week 16 - L @ Indianapolis Colts 38-30
Week 17 - L @ Jacksonville Jaguars 20-13
Week 18 - Houston Texans
Titans OFFENSE (in 2024 regular season)
Rushing Yards Per game - 110.6 ypg (15th in the NFL)
Passing Yards Per game - 193.0 ypg (28th)
Total offense per game - 303.6 ypg (28th)
Turnovers lost - 33 (21 INT, 12 Fumbles lost)
Expected Titans starting offense for Week 18
QB - Will Levis and/or MASON RUDOLPH
RB - TONY POLLARD or Tyjae Spears or Julius Chestnut
WR - CALVIN RIDLEY
WR - Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
WR - TYLER BOYD
TE - Chig Okonkwo
LT - JC LATHAM
LG - Peter Skoronski
C - Daniel Brunskill or Corey Levin
RG - Daniel Brunskill or Dillon Radunz
RT - Jaelyn Duncan or Nicholas Petit-Frere
Other Key Offensive pieces
WR - BRYCE OLIVER
WR - JHA'QUAN JACKSON
TE - DAVID MARTIN-ROBINSON
TE - Josh Whyle
TE - NICK VANNETT
RB - JOSHUA KELLEY
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Titans Offense
- The Titans QB Dynamic Duo? - Earlier in the work week, Titans head coach Brian Callahan announced both of his QBs would play in the Week 18 contest with the Texans. Mason Rudolph AND Will Levis. It was Levis who lit up the Texans secondary at NRG Stadium in the 32-27 win back in Week 12. He hit four explosives against this Texans defense and that was enough for the Titans' win. The rest was fairly dreadful and over the next few weeks, those dreadful performances caught up to Levis. Callahan turned the offense over to Rudolph and the results weren't much better. So Callahan will play them both and attempt for Levis to channel what he found in Houston and squeeze as much out of Rudolph as he possibly can. I'd say that neither one of them will do anything of consequence, but I thought that in Houston six weeks ago…and how did that go? So, get pressure with four. Tackle in space. Keep it ALL in front. Pick them off repeatedly. Fly home with win number ten.
- One Time was a killer- The first matchup was tilting toward full-on craziness in the fourth quarter but the Texans seemed to have righted the ship after a Jimmie Ward pick six and a Kai'mi Fairbairn field goal gave the Texans a 4-point lead with 9:46 left in the game. Then, in one fell swoop, the Texans defense broke. Levis booted to his right and made an easy throw to a wide open Chig Okonkwo. Okay, so Okonkwo will get a nice gain, but tackle him and…well, tackle him, guys. NO, I WASN'T KIDDING, TACKLE HIM! Nope, Okonkwo sauntered into the end zone nearly untouched 70 yards later with the go-ahead TD. Okonkwo is such a problem but even more so for both QBs who want easy completions. As we saw in that game, Okonkwo has the juice to turn one of those easy completions into an explosive and that's a problem. He did show up on the injury report this week, so that's worth keeping an eye on, but if/when he plays, he's going to see more than a handful of targets in this matchup.
- The Shell Game- The Texans have seen their share of different OL combinations from the Titans over the past three seasons. It's been the one area that Callahan has been trying to fix since he arrived; his legendary OL coach dad can only do so much. But, the Texans couldn't really penetrate the group that played in Houston back in week 12. But, there might be some moving parts again, especially on the right side. RG Dillon Radunz is back from injury but is he ready to play? RT Jaelyn Duncan, who started last week, is back on the injury report. The questions don't stop with them. Is Corey Levin going to start at center again? The Texans have played well against him in the past and have to dominate the action in the interior, Levin or otherwise.
Titans DEFENSE (in 2024 regular season)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per game - 129.4 ypg (22nd in the NFL)
Passing Yards Allowed Per game - 177.9 ypg (2nd)
Total offense Allowed per game - 307.3 ypg (2nd)
Turnovers generated - 17 (11 INT, 6 Fumble recoveries - Titans are -16 in TO margin)
Expected Titans starting defense for Week 18
OLB - Arden Key
DE - SEBASTIAN JOSEPH-DAY
DT - T'VONDRE SWEAT
DT - Jeffery Simmons
OLB - Harold Landry III
LB - Luke Gifford or JAMES WILLIAMS
LB - JEROME BAKER
CB - JARVIS BROWNLEE
S - Armani Hooker or DARYL WORLEY
S - Mike Brown
CB - CHIDOBE AWUZIE
*Nickel - Roger McCreary
Other Key Defensive pieces
CB - DARRELL BAKER
NT - Keondre Coburn
DE - JAYLEN HARRELL
DT - JAMES LYNCH
DE - ALI GAYE
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Titans' Defense
- Not Ready to throw in the towel- Titans star DT Jeffery Simmons was asked about draft positioning this week and how to encapsulate the position that the Titans are currently facing in Week 18. He was diplomatic in his answer, but it clearly rankled him that the Titans were a 3-win team in Year 6 of his career. He had one of his better games of the season as he took over the fourth quarter when the Texans needed success the most. The key is to frustrate him early in the game to keep him from impacting a potential close game in the second half. The Texans have to do a better job hitting runs downhill on the play side and not allowing Simmons to play the cutback as well as he/they did in the week 12 game.
- Finding a rhythm v. getting rest?- Oh, the question that's been asked all week long here in Houston - play the starters to try to find an offensive rhythm before the playoffs hit or rest key starters to make sure key starters are fully rested for Wild Card weekend? This is a kind of a no-win situation, honestly, that the Texans offense truly put itself in. Execute at a higher level throughout the season and the answer is easy - rest them. But, with such inconsistency and an outing against Baltimore that, as Bobby Slowik noted, nothing went right. Nothing, so it's a major and legit question. Quite honestly, there are a few key offensive guys that could use some time away from contact, especially against this physical Tennessee defense. Consequently, I'm not sure what is the perfect answer, but the RIGHT answer is no matter what happens, this offense has to physically engage the Titans at the point of attack. Regardless of who is in the game, winning with physicality on the OL is that much more important. That's all I want to see in this game - engage and attack that Titans' front all game long.
- You have ONE job, score Touchdowns! - Similarly, the offensive players have to get into the end zone. Since the bye week, the Texans have scored three touchdowns - all passing touchdowns. Three TDs on 31 drives. No rushing TDs since Joe Mixon scored a rushing TD in Jacksonville on December 1st. This offense has to put the ball in the end zone at all costs in this game. In fact, the last TD a player on the 53-man roster scored occurred with 11:00 remaining in the third quarter of the Miami game as Pro Bowl WR Nico Collins scored on a throw from QB C.J. Stroud (that's 146 minutes without an offensive TD for anyone on this 53-man roster). Now, I don't expect the Texans defense to give up 30+ points again, but it really doesn't matter to me how much that unit gives up; the main, perhaps only, goal in this one is to score TDs often. Not field goals. Not drives into the red zone. All. The. Way. Into. The. End zone. That means finish. Finish blocks. Finish catches. Finish routes. Finish the play…into the end zone, no matter what. I wouldn't mind seeing head coach DeMeco Ryans eschew field goals in this one to take additional shots at scoring TDs. When out of practice with anything, do whatever possible to shake that malaise. The Texans need that touchdown feeling before coming back home to play Wild Card weekend.
