Similar to the Patriots throughout the 2010s, it's felt like an annual ritual seeing the Chiefs on the Texans schedule. Starting in 2015, the Texans faced Kansas City every single year (minus 2018, 2021 and 2023), including twice in the playoffs in 2015 and 2019. The helmet is quite familiar, even if both teams have changed drastically since they last met in 2022.
On the Kansas City side, though, there are still some fundamental faces who were there in 2022.
Patrick Mahomes is still the MAN.
Travis Kelce is still the leading receiver by nearly double the next-closest pass catcher.
Chris Jones can take over any damn game at any damn time.
Andy Reid is still THAT DUDE as the head coach of this team.
However, the news of Mahomes' injured ankle spread like wildfire amongst the Houston fanbase last Sunday, but it appears that the 3x Super Bowl winning QB will be ready to rock on Saturday. The Chiefs offense hasn't been the juggernaut it was when Mahomes first took over in 2018, but he knows how to make it work and he knows how to win games. Whatever it takes, Mahomes will do.
The Chiefs defensive mainstay is, arguably, the most disruptive interior player in the league: Jones. The Texans were fortunate in 2019 to not face Jones in either of the two games, but in 2020, he showed how dominant he could be with 1.5 sacks and two QB hits. However, the Texans OL held Jones in check a couple of years ago, so I anticipate Jones will try to unleash on this Texans OL so that doesn't happen again. In 2024, Jones has continued to put OL on skates and tackle ball carriers for losses, be it sacks or TFL, so he'll be a handful-and-a-half on Saturday.
This is THE temperature game. Not literally (however, it will be cold), but it's a matchup to let you know how good your team actually is. As such, let's get to Know the Texans' Week 16 Foe: the 2x defending World Champion,13-1 Kansas City Chiefs.
2022 Schedule (13-1)
Week 1 - W Baltimore Ravens 27-20
Week 2 - W Cincinnati Bengals 26-25
Week 3 - W @ Atlanta Falcons 22-17
Week 4 - W @ Los Angeles Chargers 17-10
Week 5 - W New Orleans Saints 26-13
Week 6 - BYE WEEK
Week 7 - W @ San Francisco 49ers 28-18
Week 8 - W @ Las Vegas Raiders 27-20
Week 9 - W Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30-24
Week 10 - W Denver Broncos 16-14
Week 11 - L @ Buffalo Bills 30-21
Week 12 - W @ Carolina Panthers 30-27
Week 13 - W Las Vegas Raiders 19-17
Week 14 - W Los Angeles Chargers 19-17
Week 15 - W @ Cleveland Browns 21-7
Week 16 - Houston Texans
Week 17 - @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 18 - @ Denver Broncos
Chiefs OFFENSE (in 2024 regular season)
Rushing Yards Per game - 112.1 ypg (16th in the NFL)
Passing Yards Per game - 224.1 ypg (13th)
Total offense per game - 336.3 ypg (14th)
Turnovers lost - 14 (3 Fumble lost, 11 INT)
Expected Chiefs starting offense for Week 16
QB - Patrick Mahomes
RB - Isiah Pacheco
WR - XAVIER WORTHY
WR - DEANDRE HOPKINS
WR - JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER
TE - Travis Kelce
LT - D.J HUMPHRIES or Wanya Morris or Joe Thuney
LG - Joe Thuney or Mike Caliendo
C - Creed Humphrey
RG - Trey Smith
RT - Jawaan Taylor
Key Offensive Non-Starters
QB - CARSON WENTZ
RB - Samaje Perine
RB - Kareem Hunt
FB/RB - CARSON STEELE
TE - Noah Gray
WR - NIKKO REMIGIO
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Chiefs Offense
- The Window is still open, but the shade looks different - The Chiefs have won three Super Bowl championships since 2019. In that first year, the Chiefs had Tyreek Hill and Kelce dominating the game as Mahomes key pass catchers. In 2022, just three years later, Hill was traded to Miami and the Chiefs relied on guys like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to make key catches, alongside Kelce. Then, in 2023, Smith-Schuster departed, so rookie Rashee Rice stepped in with a tremendous season. But, in 2024, the Chiefs lost Rice early in the season. Valdes-Scantling moved on. Kadarius Toney was a mess and was let go. Enter rookie Xavier Worthy. Then around midseason, the Chiefs went out and made a move for future Hall of Famer DeAndre Hopkins. So, every single season, Mahomes has made the adjustment to a different set of pass catchers…and Kelce. TE Noah Gray has stepped up into the interior passing game void and is third on the roster with 37 receptions. Individually, no Chiefs pass catcher has played like a Pro Bowler, but as a collective group, it's highly diverse and productive; they're more than Kelce and his backup band. In fact, an argument could be made that Worthy and Gray get their share of solo songs errr, targets in this offense, alongside lead singer Kelce.
- "Like a kid on Pepsi and Pop Rocks"- Asked about former Rutgers RB Isiah Pacheco when he was coming out of college, I made the assessment that he ran with his hair on fire and then went further. "He runs like a kid on Pepsi and Pop Rocks." In other words, Pacheco runs fearlessly and physically and challenges you to stop him. High knees. Direct lines. No dancing. Looking to run over anyone and everyone on the field. He's only played five games this year, but he's fresh and that shows in his run style. Tackling is always at a premium, but against this dude? Texans defenders better bring more than one guy to the party to bring him to the ground.
- Like Last Week - Last week against the Dolphins, Miami had replacement tackles in the game due to injuries. Similarly, the Chiefs have issues with their left tackle position. Right tackle will be manned by Jawaan Taylor who has faced the Texans plenty as a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars. But, how the Chiefs line up and WHO lines up at left tackle is going to be a hot topic and a focal point early in this game. The Dolphins gave a lot of help with RB chips, TEs and guard help to the two tackles against Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr and the edge rushers and the Texans must force Kansas City into the same type situation. Mahomes is much more mobile and willing to leave the pocket (especially to his right), but with a banged up left tackle depth chart, in addition to Mahomes' injured ankle, this situation is definitely worth monitoring on Saturday.
Chiefs DEFENSE (in 2024 regular season)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per game - 91.9 ypg (3rd in the NFL)
Passing Yards Allowed Per game - 215.0 ypg (14th)
Total offense Allowed per game - 306.9 ypg (5th)
Turnovers generated - 16 (10 INT, 6 Fumble recoveries - Chiefs are +2 in TO margin)
Expected Chiefs starting defense for Week 16
DE - George Karlaftis
NT - Tershawn Wharton
DT - Chris Jones
DE - Mike Danna
LB - Nick Bolton
LB - Leo Chenal
LB - Drue Tranquill
CB - Joshua Williams
S - Bryan Cook
S - Justin Reid
CB - Trent McDuffie
Nickel - Charmarri Conner
Key Defensive Non-Starters
DT - Derrick Nnadi
DT - MARLON TUIPULOTU
DE - Charles Omenihu
DE - Felix Anudike-Uzomah
DE - JOSH UCHE
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Italics - Rookie
Keys to winning v. the Chiefs Defense
- I'd rather he NOT play - When I first saw Jones at Mississippi State as a true freshman, I thought he was going to be one of the best DL in the NFL in due time. He didn't flourish a ton over his final two seasons at MSU, but once he got into the league, he found that inner DAWG and now brings it out of him each and every week. This is no longer Jones choosing when he WANTS to dominate; he's that guy who takes over week in and week out. His presence on the Chiefs defensive line scares me because of how the Texans have needed to adjust for injuries on the interior. Moving Tytus Howard to left guard was a move that needed to be made to get the best five OL on the field, but it might be even more important this week because Howard is the one interior guy that can battle Jones one-on-one…and live to tell about it. Does Kansas City then move Jones outside to go one-on-one from the edge against rookie RT Blake Fisher? That wouldn't be too far outside the realm of possibility, honestly. Jones was sick the last time that he played the Texans and didn't register a stat. I have a feeling he's going to want to make amends and he'll be primed to create mayhem…and that's not great news.
- High Praise- I love to watch Chiefs LB Nick Bolton. Love it. Just not against the Texans. There are a number of LBs that I respect in the league and Bolton is HIGH on that list. He can run. He's smart as all get out. He can decipher plays and schemes quickly. Then, he explodes to the football, whether he's mugged up at the line of scrimmage or lined up anywhere on the field. The 6-0, 237 lb. superstar is twitchy and explosive to the football, packs a wallop when he gets there and doesn't come off the field, all the while creating impact plays against both the pass and the run. The last time that we saw Bolton was here at NRG Stadium in 2022 when he led the Chiefs with seven tackles and had two QB hurries. He's the central processing unit for DC Steve Spagnoolo's defense and the Texans have to do everything possible to force Bolton to at least have to jettison Texans blockers to get to the ball. Keeping Bolton from running unabated to the football throughout the game has to be on the offensive to-do list this week.
- Challenge me- Over the years, in my draft coverage, I've begun adding where a prospect went to high school because of Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie. I knew how good he was at the University of Washington and I was a huge fan of his all-around game. When I read his college bio, I realized that he played at St. John Bosco HS in Bellflower, CA. I watched him a ton in high school and loved him at Bosco but didn't even know that was him. Knowing where he played his high school ball, how well coached he was in high school, gave me the sense that he would be ready for the rigors, the schemes and the intensity of the NFL. Suffice to say, McDuffie has been that and then some, whether he's playing on the outside or the inside. He might be the best nickel cover guy in the league, but he also might be a top five to seven perimeter cormerback as well. He's equally good in man or zone, but will the Chiefs put him on Nico Collins repeatedly? My guess is that the Chiefs won't travel McDuffie early in the game with Nico, only doing it as a last resort/gotta-have-it sort of thing. But, don't get it twisted, the Texans and C.J. Stroud need to know where #22 is on every play because he's going to know what they're doing on every play.
