There are always intriguing games on the Texans' schedule annually, but the one that will take place on Sunday has a little more juice than some other regular season games. Why?
It's Reppin' H-Town Day. H's Up!
It's the first game ever for the Texans to wear a helmet that doesn't feature the bullhead logo. It will feature the new H that caught this town by storm.
It's the first time the Texans will wear the H-Town jerseys.
It's two 3-1 teams locking horns.
Oh, and it's the one game many nationally have circled as it's the first time Stefon Diggs faces his old team the Buffalo Bills. So, yeah, there's a LOT going on Sunday as the Buffalo Bills arrive to take on the Texans at noon at NRG Stadium.
There's going to be more emotion in the building than in many regular season games for those reasons above, but mainly because these are thought to be two of the best teams in the AFC. The Bills have been led by Josh Allen for the past seven seasons and he's probably playing the best football of his career. He made a throw against Baltimore last week that defied description and he's grown and matured as a quarterback every single outing since we first saw him as a rookie back in 2018. He's now, as he's been the past four seasons, an MVP candidate and as hot as any QB in the NFL.
The challenge for the Texans is significant, but I can't wait to see them in a massive regular season game against Allen and the talented Bills. As such, let's get to Know the Texans' Week 5 Foe - the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Schedule (3-1)
Week 1 - W Arizona Cardinals 24-28
Week 2 - W @ Miami Dolphins 31-10
Week 3 - W Jacksonville Jaguars 47-10
Week 4 - L @ Baltimore Ravens 35-10
Week 5 - @ Houston Texans
Week 6 - @ New York Jets
Week 7 - Tennessee Titans
Week 8 - @ Seattle Seahawks
Week 9 - Miami Dolphins
Week 10 - @ Indianapolis Colts
Week 11 - Kansas City Chiefs
Week 12 - BYE WEEK
Week 13 - San Francisco 49ers
Week 14 - @ Los Angeles Rams
Week 15 - @ Detroit Lions
Week 16 - New England Patriots
Week 17 - New York Jets
Week 18 - @ New England Patriots
Bills OFFENSE (in 2024 regular season)
Rushing Yards Per game - 110.3 ypg (17th in the NFL)
Passing Yards Per game - 195.5 ypg (20th)
Total offense per game - 305.8 ypg (20th)
Turnovers lost - 2 (2 Fumbles lost)
Expected Bills starting offense for Week 5
QB - Josh Allen
RB - James Cook
WR - Khalil Shakir
WR - MACK HOLLINS
WR - KEON COLEMAN
TE - Dalton Kincaid
LT - Dion Dawkins
LG - David Edwards
C - Connor McGovern
RG - O'Cyrus Torrence
RT - Spencer Brown
Other Key Offensive pieces
TE - Dawson Knox
FB - Reggie Gilliam
RB - RAY DAVIS
RB - Ty Johnson
WR - CURTIS SAMUEL
WR - MARQUES VALDES-SCANTLING
IOL - Alec Anderson
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Bills Offense
- It's MVP Josh, not Wyoming Josh- After the Texans beat the Bills in the 2019 Wild Card playoff game, I remembered reading an article about the game in which the author described Josh Allen as "Wyoming Josh" in the second half of the Texans comeback win. What he meant by that statement was that Allen turned back the clock to his Wyoming days when he was a wild stallion, playing way too careless with the ball in his hands. In 2021, we got to see the improved Allen in Buffalo in the rain and I hated it. In 2024, to my chagrin, he's that much better. He still has the athletic ability to throw the ball a country mile, falling out of bounds, on target 60 yards down the field. But he's playing with constraint and poise that keeps him from turning into Wyoming Josh like back in early 2020. To further illustrate that point, he hasn't thrown an interception thus far in 2024. He's making significant, impactful plays on the ground. He's the most difficult Bill to tackle with the ball in his hands. Unfortunately, he's no longer Wyoming Josh; he's Josh Allen, MVP candidate.
- Dalton from Roadhouse- When the Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid in 2023, I remarked how tricky it would be to stop the Bills offense in the near future. The biggest problem that teams have when facing the Bills is deciding whether Kincaid is a receiver or a tight end. Which one is he? Yes. Huh? Yeah, he's both, honestly, the trick is trying to figure out how the Bills see him on any one particular play. Do the Texans need a true cover corner on Kincaid in third down situations? Can they afford to put a corner on him with all of the other Bills weapons? Kincaid lines up all over the formation, mostly, though, splitting his time as an in-line TE and a slot WR. He's a wonderful receiving weapon and the Texans have to adapt to his chameleon receiving traits to limit his impact.
- Eliminate the Chef- Much was made of the Bills' firing of former OC Ken Dorsey last year and the subsequent hire of Joe Brady. The Bills offense shed its Dorsey skin and became a Brady unit nearly immediately. The biggest benefactor seemingly of that metamorphosis was, and still is, RB James Cook. Dorsey was fired on November 14th after the Bills lost to the Broncos last year. Cook averaged nearly three touches more per game after the Brady OC hire. He became a bona fide weapon for this Bills offense on rushes and man, is he good in the screen game. Even though Brady and Josh Allen spread the wealth amongst the Bills weapons, when it gets tough, Cook will see the rock. The Texans have to take that one asset away from the Bills on Sunday to have any chance of winning this game.
Bills DEFENSE (in 2024 regular season)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per game - 156.5 ypg (30th in the NFL)
Passing Yards Allowed Per game - 165.3 ypg (6th)
Total offense Allowed per game - 321.8 ypg (14th)
Turnovers generated - 7 (4 INT, 3 Fumbles lost - Bills are +5 in TO margin)
Expected Bills starting defense for Week 5
DE - A.J. Epenesa
DT - DaQuan Jones
DT - Ed Oliver
DE - Greg Rousseau
LB - Dorian Williams
LB - Terrel Bernard (injured) or Nicholas Morroe or Baylon Spector
Nickel - Taron Johnson (missed last week with injury)
CB - Christian Benford
S - Damar Hamlin
S - Taylor Rapp (injured last week)
CB - Rasul Douglas
Other Key Defensive pieces
DE - DAWUANE SMOOT
DE - CASEY TOOHILL
DT - AUSTIN JOHNSON
CB - Kaiir Elam
S - COLE BISHOP
Nickel - Cam Lewis
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Bills Defense
- Mr. Underrated- If Russell Wilson could look into a camera and call himself Mr. Unlimited, Bills CB Christian Benford should find a camera and call himself what he is - Mr. Underrated. There is perhaps no better player that no one in the league really knows, or studies, more than Benford. As a sixth round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft out of FCS Villanova, Benford was certainly going to have to fight to make the Bills roster. But, almost immediately, he became a playmaker for the Bills secondary. In 2023, he became an entrenched starter and hasn't looked back. He's been ranked as the number one cornerback in the league by PFF and continues to star. He has toughness and ball skills. He'll mix it up as a force run defender. He's constantly around the ball. Don't be fooled by his non-star CB number of 47, he's HIM for that Bills secondary, banged up though it may be.
- Eddie O- When the Texans went to Buffalo in 2021, it was a miserable weather day as the rain started in pregame and never seemingly let up. The Texans got the ball to start the game and committed a holding penalty on the first play. On the second play, I still can see it like yesterday, Bills DT Ed Oliver shot through the A gap (between guard and center) about as soon as the ball was snapped to tackle a Texans RB for no gain. It was so vicious in how explosive Oliver was to the ball. I mean, neither guard nor center could get a hand on him. Since that day, Oliver has done nothing but get better. It's that first step that can be so incredibly dominant against slower interior offensive linemen. The Texans have faced their share of gargantuan linemen with strength and power thus far this year, but Oliver's superpower is something they haven't seen much of in the first four weeks. He'll go back door on blocks and run plays down from behind ala J.J. Watt. He is still powerful and uses his leverage well as a 6-1 DT. So, he's a handful and if there's any group that must play better this week, overall, it's the interior OL. Oliver will not make that job easy on Sunday.
- Challenge the Safeties- Since the end of last season, the Bills took a machete to the safety position. In no particular order, they released Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, the 2023 starters, named Damar Hamlin a starter, moved Taylor Rapp into the other starting position and drafted Cole Bishop in the second round. Now, Rapp is hurt and his status is unclear for this matchup. So, the Bills could start Hamlin, for just the fifth time since his unfortunate on-field injury at the end of 2022, and Bishop, who has played in just three NFL games to date. The Texans have to find ways to put those two in peril and stretch them schematically in this game. Put the onus on them to have to make plays and put pressure on them from the outset.
