It's strange the way things work out, right? The Texans traveled to Indianapolis for the season finale in week 18, in 2023, with a playoff berth on the line. They eventually flew home with one of the greatest regular season wins in team history. So, where did the NFL Schedule Makers send the Texans to start the 2024 season?
Yep, Indianapolis.
Okay, back-to-back regular season games in Indianapolis for the first time in team history it is. That's a daunting task, to say the least. However, if there's one thing we've learned about a DeMeco Ryans-coached Texans squad, the mantra "anyone, anytime, anywhere" is alive and well in H-Town. This game could be in Antarctica and Ryans and his staff would have his team ready to rock. So, bring on Indianapolis IN Indianapolis…again.
Not surprisingly, throughout the offseason, there was a ton of talk about the Colts wanting revenge, in a sense, from the Texans for their week 18 win. "Wait until they see a healthy Anthony" has been the cry throughout the spring and summer. Anthony is Colts QB Anthony Richardson, who exited 2023 after just four games to repair his throwing shoulder. He's a rare, freakazoid athlete at the QB position and he ran all over the Texans in week two last year at NRG before exiting with a concussion. So, how different are the Colts with Richardson under center in 2024? We're all about to find out.
As much as the Colts offense could be significantly different with Richardson under center, this is relatively the same roster the Texans faced in Week 18, minus Richardson and rookie DE Laiatu Latu. The Texans know them well and it's time to lock horns, again, in Indianapolis. As such, let's get to know the Texans Week 1 foe - the Indianapolis Colts.
2024 Colts Schedule
Week 1 - Houston Texans
Week 2 - @ Green Bay Packers
Week 3 - Chicago Bears
Week 4 - Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 5 - @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 6 - @ Tennessee Titans
Week 7 - Miami Dolphins
Week 8 - @ Houston Texans
Week 9 - @ Minnesota Vikings
Week 10 - Buffalo Bills
Week 11 - @ New York Jets
Week 12 - Detroit Lions
Week 13 - @ New England Patriots
Week 14 - BYE WEEK
Week 15 - @ Denver Broncos
Week 16 - Tennessee Titans
Week 17 - @ New York Giants
Week 18 - Jacksonville Jaguars
Colts OFFENSE (in 2023 regular season)
Rushing Yards Per game - 121.1 ypg (10th in the NFL)
Passing Yards Per game - 215.6 ypg (20th)
Total offense per game - 336.8 ypg (15th)
Turnovers lost - 22 (12 Fumbles lost,10 INT)
Expected Colts starting offense for Week 1
QB - Anthony Richardson
RB - Jonathan Taylor
TE - Mo Alie-Cox or Kylen Granson
WR - Michael Pittman Jr.
WR - Josh Downs (injured in Preseason) or ADONAI MITCHELL
WR - Alec Pierce
LT - Bernhard Raimann
LG - Quenton Nelson
C - Ryan Kelly
RG - Will Fries
RT - Braden Smith
Key Offensive Non-Starters
QB - JOE FLACCO
RB - Trey Sermon
RB - Tyler Goodson
WR - ANTHONY GOULD
TE - Drew Ogletree
TE - Will Mallory
OT - Blake Freeland
OG - Danny Pinter
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Colts Offense
- JT28 - The Colts drafted RB Jonathan Taylor in 2020 as the Texans were going through a tough stretch. During that four year period (2020 - 2023), Taylor faced the Texans six times and the Colts were 4-1-1 in those six games. He has scored a rushing or receiving TD in five of the six games. On the ground, he's averaged 135 yards in those six games and gone for nearly six yards per carry. Taylor's scored eight total TDs and had 14 receptions for 91 yards and one receiving TD. He ran for 188 yards on the Texans in the Week 18 game in Indy, including a 48-yard TD run that tied the game at 14 in the third quarter. And, AND as Colts fans will tell you, he's taken just one snap alongside QB Anthony Richardson. So the Colts are confident Taylor will once again gash the Texans run defense. He won't IF the Texans tackle consistently for 60 minutes. Case in point, against the Texans in 2021 up in Indianapolis, the Texans held him in check until he broke one tackle and took a run 80 yards. In Week 18, the Texans had a defender squarely in the hole one-on-one with Taylor, who shook said tackler, and 48-yards later, the great Colts RB had tied the game. All in all, it's not good enough to keep him in check on 28 of 30 runs; it has to be all 30 to have a chance to slow Taylor completely down.
- He's BACK! - If there's one thing that I heard ad nauseam this offseason from Colts players and fans, it was that things would be different for the Texans in Week 1 this year because Anthony Richardson is back for the Colts at QB. Richardson isn't like most, if not all, QBs in the NFL. He's 6-4, 244 lb. and runs in the 4.4 range and has a CANNON for a right arm. But it's his running ability that's the biggest source of defensive adaptation for the Texans defense. The Texans defensive unit saw Richardson for just three series last year in week two and he gashed them on beautifully called, designed QB runs in the first two scoring series. Consequently, the Texans have their hands full with one of the fastest running backs playing quarterback in the league. Because he has a howitzer for a right arm, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Colts let him air it out early in the game, ala C.J. Stroud in Week 18. But he's been inaccurate throwing the ball this preseason, which was his issue in college as well. That's why I think he'll run the ball even more, especially in short yardage or goal-to-go situations.
- The New Guy- It's not as if the Colts didn't do anything in the offseason, but they did little in the way of free agency to bolster their team. As such, the Colts relied on the Draft to find roster enhancers and they found one with former Texas/former Georgia star Adonai Mitchell at receiver. As a rookie, in Week 1, it's not completely clear how Mitchell will be indoctrinated into this offense and what's ultimately going to be his role in year one. However, one thing I'm confident in is that the Colts are going to use Mitchell's speed to test the Texans secondary down the field. Thankfully, Texans' rookie defensive back Kamari Lassiter is familiar with Mitchell having faced him for a few years in practice at Georgia. Either way, Mitchell is going to put an imprint on this offense, more than likely as early as week one. It's just a matter of figuring out HOW they'll do it and then adjusting to Mitchell for the rest of the game.
Colts DEFENSE (in 2023 regular season)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per game - 123.8 ypg (24th in the NFL)
Passing Yards Allowed Per game - 226.0 ypg (16th)
Total offense Allowed per game - 349.8 ypg (24th)
Turnovers generated - 24 (15 INT, 9 Fumble recoveries - Colts were +2 in TO margin in 2023)
Expected Colts starting defense for Week 1
DE - Kwity Paye
DT - DeForest Buckner
DT - Grover Stewart
DE - LAIATU LATU
LB - Zaire Franklin
LB - E.J. Speed
Nickel - Kenny Moore II
CB - Jaylon Jones
S - Julian Blackmon
S - Nick Cross
CB - Julius Brents
Key Defensive Non-Starters
DE - Dayo Odeyingbo
NT - RAEKWON DAVIS
DT - Adetomiwa Adebawore
DE - Tyquan Lewis
DT - Taven Bryan
LB - Sequin Olubi
CB - Dallis Flowers
ST - Grant Stuard
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Colts Defense
- Grove and Buck, Part III- Here's what I wrote heading into week two in 2023 against the Colts.
The Texans interior MUST handle one of the best DL duos in the NFL - Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner. Those two have spent the last three years lighting up the Texans interior offensive linemen regularly. Strength. Size. Power. Quickness. Agility. Those two have those assets in spades. Stewart is often overshadowed, but I've seen him destroy any, and every single, rush plan the Texans have thrown at him. Buckner? Same result. So, if the Texans' interior can't effectively block that duo, then the LBs will run free BEHIND a duo let loose in the Texans backfield. Suffice to say, the Texans run game will end up in neutral, or worse, go in reverse if that happens.
I wrote in Week 18 last year that these two had to be contained and that the Texans couldn't let Grove and Buck take over the game. Fortunately, those two stalwarts didn't dominate the game as in previous years and the Texans did enough against them to win the game. But here we are in week one when those two are their healthiest all season long. Guard Kenyon Green, center Juice Scruggs and guard Shaq Mason must play at a high level this week to, again, not have Buckner and Stewart roaming in the backfield whenever they choose. They were allowed to do that for three years before last year and it can't happen again.
- Beef - Throughout this offseason, Colts LBs Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed spoke often about their need to get revenge against this Texans offense, in particular, QB C.J. Stroud. Those two Colts LBs have become the driving force for the Colts defense and they go sideline-to-sideline about as fast as any two linebackers in the league. But, in Week 18, the Texans were able to stretch them sideline-to-sideline with different passing and running concepts. In the run game, the Texans must be able to control the front such that they can get, at least, one hat on each LB. In 2024 preseason games, the Texans OL/FB/TE didn't do a great job at that, but they also didn't scheme up the opposing defenses leading into the game either. So, a major key is getting hats on 44 and 45 and then forcing them to have to be dual threat defenders in pass coverage as well. Then, we'll see how much talking they'll want to do after the game.
- Attack the Corners, again- In Week 18's Know Your Foe last year, I listed as one of my Keys to the Game - "Attack the Corners" - and my man OC Bobby Slowik was reading/listening. On the first play of the game, he called the unforgettable deep shot to WR Nico Collins from QB C.J. Stroud that gave the Texans a 7-3 lead right out of the chute. But they didn't stop attacking the corners with Nico, in particular, throughout that game and he finished with nine catches for 195 yards and one 75-yard TD. Now, add in a healthy Tank Dell and 4-time Pro Bowl WR Stefon Diggs and there are three excellent reasons, and opportunities, on every pass play to attack those corners. I don't really care if the Texans don't run for much as long as they stay in attack mode on those corners that struggled last year and now face an even stronger Texans pass catching corps.
