It's been a little over a year since the Texans began their climb back into the upper echelon of the AFC. After a rough 0-2 start to 2023, the Texans went to Jacksonville to take on the defending AFC South champs, who were one week away from a trip to London for back-to-back games across the pond. Little attention was paid to the Texans at that point and it showed: the Texans rose up and smited the Jaguars in their building, 37-17.
Although the Jaguars won the second meeting in late November, listening to, and reading, analysis all offseason long, it was that loss to the Texans in September, at their place, that really grabbed the attention of Doug Pederson's crew. That loss lingered for a while and it was symbolic, in some way, for the entire organization, throughout the Jaguars' offseason. The lesson that seemed to come out of that game was that no one can ever be taken for granted…EVER, not even a winless team coming to your house that you are favored to beat by a touchdown or more.
Fast forward to the present day and the situation is a complete 180. The Texans are the defending AFC South champs. Their "London trip" is an emotional meeting in Houston with Buffalo next week. This Jags-Texans matchup is here at home for the defending AFC South champs. The Jaguars are winless, scarred and dangerous, as a result. The formula is ripe for Jacksonville to flip the script and kickstart its season with a quality win like the Texans did last year. What needs to happen to prevent the sequel from being colored teal and black?
They're ALL important, but this one is even more so, given what happened to, and for, the Texans last week and last year. As such, let's get to Know the Texans' Week 4 Foe - the Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars 2024 Schedule (0-3)
Week 1 - L @ Miami Dolphins 20-17
Week 2 - L Cleveland Browns 18-13
Week 3 - L @ Buffalo Bills 47-10
Week 4 - @ Houston Texans
Week 5 - Indianapolis Colts
Week 6 - @ Chicago Bears
Week 7 - New England Patriots
Week 8 - Green Bay Packers
Week 9 - @ Philadelphia Eagles
Week 10 - Minnesota Vikings
Week 11 - @ Detroit Lions
Week 12 - BYE WEEK
Week 13 - Houston Texans
Week 14 - @ Tennessee Titans
Week 15 - New York Jets
Week 16 - @ Las Vegas Raiders
Week 17 - Tennessee Titans
Week 18 - @ Indianapolis Colts
Jaguars OFFENSE (in 2024 regular season)
Rushing Yards Per game - 115.7 ypg (16th in the NFL)
Passing Yards Per game - 160.7 ypg (27th)
Total offense per game - 276.3 ypg (27th)
Turnovers lost - 3 (1 INT, 2 Fumbles lost)
Expected Jaguars starting offense for Week 4
QB - Trevor Lawrence
RB - Travis Etienne
WR - Christian Kirk
WR - GABE DAVIS
WR - BRIAN THOMAS JR
TE - Evan Engram (missed Buffalo game, hamstring)
LT - Cam Robinson
LG - Ezra Cleveland
C - MITCH MORSE
RG - Brandon Scherff
RT - Anton Harrison (injured Monday night)
Other Key Offensive pieces
RB - Tank Bigsby
TE - Brenton Strange
WR - DEVIN DUVERNAY
OT - Walker Little
OC - Luke Fortner
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Jaguars Offense
- Missing Engram- When most quarterbacks are asked who their number one pass catcher is, you know, the one guy they want to highlight in a key situation, their go-to guy, the common answer is the OPEN one. I think that's a great media answer, but I've never met a QB that didn't have his favorite blanket, his wubby, the one he relies on more than any other. I believe that guy for Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is Jaguars TE Evan Engram. It's not just the volume of targets and touches over the years, but it's now seen in the rocky performances in the passing game without Engram. He hasn't played in the past two games and Lawrence had two of the worst games of his career. That's no coincidence. Engram had 143 targets in 2023 and Lawrence loves to exploit defenses with his athletic TE. But, will Engram play? He's been dealing with an injury the past few weeks and missed those two games as a result. If he does play, what is the plan for the Texans defense to make sure Engram doesn't go off? If Engram doesn't play, how does the Jacksonville offense replicate his success and consistency in the passing game. No matter what, the presence, or lack thereof, of Engram will play a role in this game.
- Edge Up- When the Jaguars drafted former Oklahoma star Anton Harrison to play right tackle (for the time being), it seemed as if the Jaguars had solved their issues out on the edge. Harrison and Cam Robinson would be the next star duo in the league. However, although they've had some moments, the two haven't given Lawrence the confidence that his edges are protected well enough. In 2023, Robinson gave up a sack every 108 pass attempts, while this year, he's yielding a sack every 30 pass attempts. He gave up two sacks on Monday night and committed two penalties on 53 dropbacks. Harrison started the year much better, but he left the game on Monday night with an injury. Oh yeah, they now face Texans star edge rushers Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter, who have been relentless to the QB this year already. It's time for Will, Danielle and all of the edge guys to harass Lawrence off the edge, regardless of who's playing tackle for Jacksonville.
- Stronger inside- When I asked DeMeco Ryans this week as to whether he thought that his guys on defense played as physical as he wanted, he pointed out that he thought the defensive tackles could've done less shooting upfield and more taking on blocks and holding the point with more physicality. The Jaguars passing game has been such a mess that I think they're sitting right now in Duval County saying "we have to run the ball at the Texans". They've had success in the past against the Texans and the G-C-G trio of Ezra Cleveland, Mitch Morse and Brandon Scherff can take advantage of the Texans interior if it's playing similar to last week. I expect the Jaguars to run right at the Texans interior early in the game to test that unit.
Jaguars DEFENSE (in 2024 regular season)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per game - 109.3 ypg (11th in the NFL)
Passing Yards Allowed Per game - 252.3 ypg (30th)
Total offense Allowed per game - 361.7 ypg (26th)
Turnovers generated - 0 (Jaguars are -3 in TO margin)
Expected Jaguars starting defense for Week 4
DE - Josh Hines-Allen
DT - Jeremiah Ledbetter
DT - Roy Robertson-Harris
DE - Travon Walker
WLB - Devin Lloyd
MLB - Chad Muma
CB - Montaric Brown
S - Antonio Johnson
S - Andre Cisco
CB - RONALD DARBY
Nickel - DARNELL SAVAGE
Other Key Defensive pieces
DE - ARIK ARMSTEAD
DT - DaVon Hamilton
Nickel - JARRIAN JONES
DE - Yasir Abdullah
DT - Tyler Lacy
Italics - Rookie
ALL CAPS - New to team in 2024
Keys to winning v. the Jaguars Defense
- Foye Gone- When the Jaguars signed LB Foye Oluokun from the Atlanta Falcons in 2022, I was furious. I have ALWAYS loved and respected the way the former Ivy Leaguer played the game, not to mention the success against the Texans. But on Monday night, Oluokun, the emotional and spiritual leader for this Jacksonville defense, injured his foot and will miss the next two to three weeks. That timeframe would include this week against the Texans. Missing Oluokun will not make me sad at all. He averaged over ten tackles every time he faced the Texans, in addition to a sack, two QB hits and two TFL, in four games against Houston. He is a constant pain in the backside. But he's now out. My assumption is that former Wyoming star LB Chad Muma will step into the lineup. Devin Lloyd has shown flashes of brilliance and Muma is one heck of an athlete, but neither one of them is Oluokun and the Texans offense must find ways to take advantage of that one fact.
- Ravaged Secondary- The Jaguars have been torched through the air this season, yielding the third worst yards per game average in the league. The Jaguars defense played a ton of man-to-man coverage and Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen tore them up as a result. Adding more salt to the wound, the Jaguars have been a M*A*S*H unit in the back end. They're already going to be without Tyson Campbell, who went on IR after week one. Rookie nickel Jarrian Jones got hurt in the first two minutes of the Buffalo game. Darnell Savage has been banged up throughout the start of the season. Now, the Texans MAY be without Tank Dell, who lit up that secondary both times he faced them last year, but the Jaguars secondary's issues go deeper, seemingly, because of the injuries and inconsistent man-to-man coverage.
- Different name, Same game- If there's a game that the Texans offensive line would like to soon forget, it's last week's debacle in Minnesota. But, if there's any positive to take from that loss, it's the Texans tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard weren't responsible for yielding a sack, a hurry or a pressure. The Vikings four sacks (while the game was in doubt) came as a result of the Vikings scheme, interior one-on-one loss and the tight ends getting beat. So, if there's any good news, that might be it. However, the bad news is coming. Last year, one of the roughest afternoons that rookie QB C.J. Stroud had was against a relentless Jacksonville pass rush, led by star Josh Hines-Allen. Well, he was Josh Allen in 2023 and he ate everyone's lunch. In 2024, after signing a massive extension, he's not been as disruptive as he was in 2023. He has just one sack and one TFL. Against Hines-Allen and the Jaguars pass rushers, Buffalo right tackle Spencer Brown did not allow a single pressure on 35 pass blocking snaps. The Texans must have similar success against Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and anyone in a white jersey out on the edge in the passing game.
